Thomas Chabot and the Quest For Mediocrity

The consensus around Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot is that he needs an elite defender as a partner in order to play even nearly up to his $8M price tag. And with concerns surrounding newly acquired Nick Jensen from the Washington Capitals, there's a good chance the search for said elite partner hasn't ended yet.

But is that really a problem? Looking at what Chabot’s had to work with, I don't think we should be pining for excellence, rather we've been starved for any sort of NHL-caliber defenseman who prevents opposing scoring chances — and can play on the right side.

With Jakob Chychrun, it didn't work out because the two were too similar, more so than I thought they'd be. Having both on the roster is a good thing, but on the ice together, neither could cover for each other's shortcomings. They had the puck more than their opponents did, but their defensive play gave the idea that the numbers were generous here.

Over the past seven years, Chabot's played a regular shift with nine different partners. Separating results by season and limit our sample size to at least 200 minutes in a single season, here are his Corsi, expected goals, and goal differential:

It's no surprise that a recovering Erik Karlsson and the often-overmatched Cody Ceci couldn't insulate Chabot in his rookie season, as even though the shot metrics with Karlsson were decent, mediocre goaltending combined with neither being strong defensively in that particular year (and also the rest of the team sucking, too!), led to a -14 goal differential on those two pairings alone.

The following year he fared much better – as he parlayed a 55-point season into an 8x8 contract extension beginning in 2021. Not only did he put up positive results with Dylan DeMelo, but with Ceci as well. Definitive proof of his progress, and also a sign that maybe Ceci's issues had something to do with being partnered with Dion Phaneuf, Mark Borowiecki and Ben Harpur during his tumultuous tenure as a Senator.

Our story takes a turn for the worse, however, with the Nikita Zaitsev acquisition. I still maintain that the initial trade to use a surplus of cap space to acquire Connor Brown for cheap was a decent deal on paper, but the organization did a horrible job of utilizing Zaitsev. Instead of treating him like a third-pairing defenseman and sheltering his minutes (thus limiting the negative value of his contract), they did the opposite, stapling him to their best defender in Chabot for the better part of three seasons, which worked great for both of them.

We already know Artem Zub and DeMelo worked out, and Zaitsev didn't. But what about Ron Hainsey? At 38 years old he was Chabot's most common partner in 2019-20, and was always seen as a liability throughout that year – but was that really the case? While not nearly as strong of a partner as DeMelo, 49% in Corsi and xGF, as well as a +5 goal differential is a lot better than Chabot ever fared with Zaitsev, as well as other additions such as Erik Gudbranson, Nick Holden, and Josh Brown.

Not to mention, support from forwards were limited, as the 2019-20 roster was mostly composed of decent third-and-fourth line players aside from their "top line" of Brady Tkachuk, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Connor Brown. Had those two been playing together on a better iteration of the Senators (perhaps one with Mark Stone, for example) you could only realistically expect those numbers to improve.

The lesson here isn't that Hainsey was a great, or even a good Ottawa Senator, but rather that when Chabot is healthy, he can be a key contributor on the blueline without relying on an elite defensive partner to support him. Which is why I'm optimistic about Nick Jensen.

Yes, someone of DeMelo's caliber would've been ideal, but even with the age curve and down season, Jensen should be able to outperform a 38-year-old Ron Hainsey, as well as the vast sea of AHL-caliber defenders Chabot has been stapled to during his career. There's a reason most analytical models use three-year weighted averages – just because Jensen declined last year at 33 years of age doesn't mean he can't see some positive regression, especially if he's supported by one of the better offensive defensemen in the league in Chabot. He has less wear and tear (he was a rookie in 2016-17) than others his age, and knows how to play defense, even if he might not be as good at putting his knowledge into practice as he was in his prime.

In spite of playing on a team that's missed the playoffs seven years in a row, Chabot has been a mostly positive contributor at even strength outside of his rookie season — especially when he's got the support he needs. Which I think is really just the same kind of support every NHLer needs to succeed. Jensen doesn’t need to be a miracle worker, he just needs to be competent.