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DRAFT DAY: Expected Pick Range

A guide to figuring out the reaches and steals of the 2019 NHL Draft.

Happy draft day! Before it all begins this evening, I’d like to introduce “expected pick range”, something that I have been using throughout Silver Seven’s draft profiles series.

The goal is to identify pre-draft where we should roughly expect a player to be taken. So as the draft is happening we can have a rough idea of whether the pick was a reach, steal, or right in a comfortable range.

The basis I’m using for this is a list of consolidated rankings gathered from 60 different scouting sources. Afterwards, each placement is converted into draft values based on the research by Michael Schuckers. The average gives us one specific value, although a standard deviation on either end gives us a range of draft values. Once converted back into picks, then we’re left with a player’s “expected pick range”.

Below is a table of every player ranked by at least ten of the 60 sources, along with their expected pick range. If they’re taken before the “Lower” value, it means the pick was probably a reach (for example, if Ottawa takes Connor McMichael at pick #19). Picking a player after the “Upper” value would be considered a steal, so if Alex Newhook dropped to pick #19, it would be an incredible value pick. “Count” is just an indicator of how many sources ranked each prospect.

It’s not perfect, but I will certainly be referring back to it constantly. Here’s the link to the original spreadsheet, which also includes the list of sources as well as an additional 260 prospects that received less attention from the consolidated rankings.

2019 NHL Draft - Expected Pick Range

#	Player	Pos	Lower	Upper	Count
1	Jack Hughes	C	1	1	60
2	Kaapo Kakko	RW	2	2	60
3	Bowen Byram	LD	3	5	60
4	Alex Turcotte	C	3	6	59
5	Trevor Zegras	C/W	4	10	60
6	Dylan Cozens	C/RW	5	10	60
7	Kirby Dach	C	6	10	60
8	Cole Caufield	C/RW	6	12	59
9	Peyton Krebs	LW/C	7	12	60
10	Vasili Podkolzin	RW	6	14	60
11	Matthew Boldy	LW	8	13	59
12	Alex Newhook	C	8	16	60
13	Arthur Kaliyev	LW	11	23	60
14	Victor Soderstrom	RD	12	21	60
15	Philip Broberg	LD	11	26	60
16	Cam York	LD	13	21	59
17	Moritz Seider	RD	13	27	60
18	Philip Tomasino	C	14	28	59
19	Thomas Harley	LD	15	28	60
20	Ville Heinola	LD	16	27	59
21	Bobby Brink	RW	15	29	57
22	Ryan Suzuki	C	16	27	59
23	Raphael Lavoie	C/RW	17	31	58
24	Pavel Dorofeyev	LW/RW	16	36	55
25	Spencer Knight	G	17	34	45
26	Jakob Pelletier	LW	18	34	59
27	Nils Hoglander	LW	20	32	56
28	Nicholas Robertson	C/LW	21	37	57
29	Connor McMichael	C	22	35	58
30	Samuel Poulin	LW	22	41	59
31	Tobias Bjornfot	LD	24	40	54
32	Matthew Robertson	LD	22	44	52
33	Patrik Puistola	LW	27	50	50
34	Egor Afanasyev	LW	29	48	52
35	Brett Leason	RW	30	53	49
36	Albin Grewe	C/RW	30	64	49
37	Lassi Thomson	RD	31	48	53
38	Anttoni Honka	RD	29	77	52
39	Nathan Legare	RW	29	76	47
40	Simon Holmstrom	RW	30	78	49
41	Ryan Johnson	LD	31	72	50
42	Robert Mastrosimone	C/LW	32	70	48
43	John Beecher	C	31	71	50
44	Jamieson Rees	C	32	56	51
45	Brayden Tracey	LW	32	69	50
46	Vladislav Kolyachonok	LD	31	73	50
47	Samuel Fagemo	LW/RW	31	76	45
48	Mikko Kokkonen	LD	29	86	46
49	Ilya Nikolayev	C/RW	32	74	43
50	Alex Vlasic	LD	32	76	42
51	Nolan Foote	LW	35	75	48
52	Kaedan Korczak	RD	35	78	44
53	Maxim Cajkovic	RW/LW	38	80	43
54	Yegor Spiridonov	C/LW	40	79	38
55	Marshall Warren	LD	37	85	38
56	Albert Johansson	LD	36	87	30
57	Jordan Spence	RD	34	93	40
58	Domenick Fensore	LD	38	87	37
59	Michal Teply	RW/LW	42	85	37
60	Shane Pinto	RW	43	85	39
61	Pyotr Kochetkov	G	45	82	20
62	Artemi Knyazev	LD	43	87	40
63	Vladislav Firstov	LW	47	82	34
64	Henry Thrun	LD	44	86	39
65	Karl Henriksson	C	44	87	39
66	Alex Beaucage	RW/LW	36	93	41
67	Adam Beckman	C	42	89	32
68	Daniil Misyul	LD	44	88	31
69	Nikita Alexandrov	C	44	90	33
70	Ethan Keppen	LW	42	92	25
71	Jackson LaCombe	LD	42	92	30
72	John Farinacci	C	52	86	30
73	Zachary Jones	LD	43	92	26
74	Mads Sogaard	G	53	87	25
75	Drew Helleson	RD	43	92	34
76	Antti Tuomisto	RD	48	89	32
77	Matias Maccelli	LW	45	91	27
78	Dustin Wolf	G	39	97	17
79	Tuukka Tieksola	RW	45	91	29
80	Billy Constantinou	RD	46	91	27
81	Dmitri Sheshin	LW	43	97	14
82	Semyon Chistyakov	LD	43	96	23
83	Daniil Gutik	LW	52	91	27
84	Antti Saarela	LW/RW	53	93	29
85	Leevi Aaltonen	LW	50	94	27
86	Mattias Norlinder	LD	55	93	21
87	Dillon Hamaliuk	LW	48	96	29
88	Jayden Struble	LD	47	100	24
89	Ronnie Attard	RD	46	103	21
90	Matvei Guskov	C	55	99	23
91	Kirill Slepets	RW	53	101	17
92	Graeme Clarke	RW	70	96	27
93	Valentin Nussbaumer	C/W	53	103	15
94	Henri Nikkanen	C	56	100	22
95	Samuel Bolduc	LD	57	99	29
96	Marcus Kallionkieli	LW	70	99	20
97	Patrick Moynihan	C	64	101	19
98	Michael Vukojevic	LD	71	98	22
99	Hunter Jones	G	55	107	15
100	Egor Serdyuk	RW	56	107	20
101	Blake Murray	C	64	107	21
102	Sasha Mutala	RW	71	103	21
103	Justin Bergeron	LD	73	103	14
104	Ben Brinkman	LD	48	145	20
105	Alex Campbell	C	69	114	25
106	Hugo Alnefelt	G	74	106	15
107	Layton Ahac	LD	55	137	23
108	Nikola Pasic	C/LW	73	107	18
109	Ryder Donovan	C	71	111	20
110	Nikita Okhotyuk	LD	73	109	18
111	Mike Koster	LD	71	113	16
112	Aaron Huglen	RW	73	110	13
113	Mikhail Abramov	RW/C	73	111	23
114	Oleg Zaitsev	C	59	137	14
115	Reece Newkirk	C	57	145	19
116	Harrison Blaisdell	C	72	118	19
117	Alexei Protas	C	73	114	20
118	Ethan Phillips	RW	75	110	15
119	Arseni Gritsyuk	LW	72	118	15
120	Simon Lundmark	RD	76	109	16
121	Gianni Fairbrother	LD	72	141	14
122	Rhett Pitlick	LW	71	154	18
123	Xavier Simoneau	C	71	151	18
124	Henry Rybinski	LW	55	178	11
125	Jake Lee	LD	72	154	16
126	Martin Hugo Has	RD	75	131	22
127	Cole Moberg	RD/RW	76	127	17
128	Michael Gildon	LW	77	127	17
129	Isaiah Saville	G	80	118	14
130	Case McCarthy	RD	81	114	17
131	Judd Caulfield	RW	80	137	15
132	Trevor Janicke	RW	83	123	11
133	Keean Washkurak	C	76	171	12
134	Cole Mackay	RW	79	164	15
135	Kim Nousiainen	LD	80	161	11
136	Colten Ellis	G	81	164	13
137	Yaroslav Likhachyov	RW	82	164	10
138	Massimo Rizzo	C/LW	77	193	15
139	Trent Miner	G	87	154	14
140	Vojtech Strondala	C	86	169	12
141	Kristian Tanus	C/W	87	169	10
142	Lucas Feuk	C/W	84	184	12
143	Roman Bychkov	LD	86	176	13
144	Owen Lindmark	RW	87	178	11
145	Ilya Mironov	LD	85	190	14
146	Luke Toporowski	LW	92	148	15
147	Kalle Loponen	RD	88	178	13
148	Albin Sundsvik	C	89	180	12
149	Josh Nodler	RW	91	174	14
150	Cole Schwindt	RW	92	186	10
151	Nicholas Porco	LW	92	197	12
152	Iivari Rasanen	LD	95	197	11
153	Aku Raty	RW	106	173	11
154	Grant Silianoff	LW	99	199	11
155	Anthony Romano	RW	125	184	10

DRAFT DAY: Expected Pick Range

2019 NHL Draft - Expected Pick Range

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