2025 Playoffs Round 1, Game 3 Preview and Open Thread: Ottawa Senators versus Toronto Maple Leafs

Imagine if you will, you are a fan of a professional sports team. You with me so far? Said team has stable ownership, competent management, and a competitive coaching staff. This team also has a captain that will skate through a brick wall just because it's there; a goalie who paced the league just two years ago; and the best defensive depth the city has seen since Bush's first term. So far, so good, am I wrong? Now, you, as a fan, get to enjoy a post-season game in your city for the first time in eight years. It's a mild spring day. Maybe you have the windows open and you can hear a cardinal or robin in a nearby treetop and you've got a warm (or cool beverage in hand). You count down the hours until puckdrop ready to yell at some young men who can definitely hear you through the TV or computer screen.

You offer me that hypothetical scenario and I'll say sign me up yesterday. Look, I know the Ottawa Senators just lost two games in different, heartbreaking ways. But you know what? Toronto has won exactly one playoff series in two decades. I know the historical data probably doesn't favour the team who lost the first two games of a best-of-seven series, and winning four out of five games as the lower seed presents a significant challenge for even the best teams, but if you don't feel 100% spiritually invested in tonight's game as a fan of the Ottawa Senators then I can't help you. I had the privilege of attending the last playoff game in Ottawa on May 23rd 2017 and I reckon the atmosphere tonight will rival that game-six scene.

We've already, as a staff, gone over our analyses of Ottawa's struggles (and improvements) in games one and two, and also made some predictions for whatever that's worth. You already know the stakes. Andlauer, Staois, and Green know what's on the line here. Brady knows what he needs to do. We the staff and you the readers just need to manifest the funniest possible outcome for this game and series. I typically wouldn't recommend to anyone baring their soul but today, I recommend taking down those emotional walls knowing very well that you might get hurt. If there was ever a day to let your guard down, this is it. Embrace the futility of fandom. If not now, then when?

Game Notes:

• This has nothing to do with the game but Michael Andlauer just got a clean two-billion dollar cheque from UPS for his company–not an insignificant transaction!
• Here's a cool story about friend of the site, Kevin Lee, and his efforts to get tickets for tonight's game into the hands of Sens fans (where they belong).
• To the surprise of literally no one, Ridly Grieg has very much become a storyline in this series.
• For the opponent, expect Max Pacioretty to replace Nick Robertson but otherwise we'll see the same old leafs [sic].
• Two games make for a very unreliable sample size, but looking at the numbers, Linus Ullmark and Anthony Stolarz seem bound for regression in different directions both at five-on-five (-1.24 GSAA/60 for Ullmark and +1.08 GSAA/60 for Stolarz) and on the penalty kill (-12.50 for Ullmark and +9.13 for Stolarz). Stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.
• The numbers support the eye test as Ottawa has managed 55.46% of expected goals at five-on-five through the first two games (score effect duly noted). Meanwhile Toronto's PDO is 1.108 while Ottawa's sits at 0.892 so try to channel your November Travis Green and trust that sticking with the process will render the results (as long as said shift occurs in the next seven hours).
• Toronto's powerplay (16.19 xG/60) has outmatched Ottawa's (12.02) but as mentioned in this morning's roundtable, the Sens looked much better in game two so keep an eye on that assuming the good guys can draw the majority of the penalties for a change. So far Toronto is scoring on every three shots while Ottawa is scoring on every 12 so again praying for regression over here.
• Said scoring rates have also skewed my perception (and possibly yours) about the penalty kills in this series as Toronto (10th among postseason teams in xGA/60) hasn't outperformed Ottawa (14th) by that wide of a margin. Ottawa still needs to do better obviously if they want to get anywhere.
• GO SENS GO.

Where to watch/listen: SN (barf), TVAS (barf), TSN1200 @ 7PM EST