Being Above .500 in October Shouldn't Be Meaningful, But it is for Ottawa
It's only 9 games, but being above .500 at the end of October is quite significant for the Senators
The Ottawa Senators win on Tuesday night was one of the biggest beat-downs in franchise history.
Their 8-1 victory over the St. Louis Blues marked the eighth time they've beaten a team by seven goals, plus there have also been two times when they won by a margin of eight. All of the previous seven times they had won by seven were in their golden years between 1998-2007, with the most recent one coming on October 21st, 2006 against the New Jersey Devils (8-1). So 18 years has been a long time. That win last night put an exclamation mark on the month of October for the Senators as they bounced back after two gut-wrenching losses in Las Vegas and Colorado.
It hasn't been an easy opening month, but they did something they haven't done since 2016: be over .500 after the first month. Yes, you read that correctly. That was seven straight seasons where they couldn't get .500 after the first 7-12 games or so. While that shouldn't be that significant for most teams, it is for Ottawa due to their history. Let's see how these last nine seasons have gone if we include this season and their last playoff team of 2016-17 as well:
| Season | October Record | November Record | Final Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 5-3-0 | 9-5-1 | 44-28-10 |
| 2017-18 | 5-2-5 | 3-7-1 | 28-43-11 |
| 2018-19 | 4-5-2 | 7-7-1 | 29-47-6 |
| 2019-20 | 3-7-1 | 8-8-0 | 25-34-12 |
| 2020-21 | 1-7-1* | 6-8-0* | 23-28-5 |
| 2021-22 | 3-4-0 | 1-10-1 | 33-42-7 |
| 2022-23 | 4-4-0 | 4-9-1 | 39-35-8 |
| 2023-24 | 4-4-0 | 4-5-0 | 37-41-4 |
| 2024-25 | 5-4-0 | n/a | n/a |
*2020-21 season was counted in January and February.
Some of you might point to 2017-18 and say that a 5-2-5 record is "above .500," but as a win/loss purist, all I see with that record is 5 wins and 7 losses. An NHL .500 record gets you 81 points, which was tied for 23rd in the league last year and 10 points out of a playoff spot, so getting more than 41 wins in a season should be the true test to at least come close to making the playoffs. So if we exclude that fake .500 in 2017-18, the last time they finished the first month with more wins than losses, they made the playoffs. Sounds like a simple concept!
What's incredible to me is that they couldn't even garner an above .500 month in October or November in any of these seasons, and often times, the second month was when things really went off the rails. Five of those seasons were under DJ Smith, and it was an extremely fair criticism of his teams (and the GM that built them) that they were essentially out of the playoff race by December every season. I pray that this season is different, and after a 5-4-0 start, it is in the early going. That's not a massive difference at all, but after years of anger-inducing starts, anything resembling a playoff team is welcomed.
That's not to say that the season is guaranteed to be a success at all, and they have so far to go from here. They could easily begin November with a few losses in a row and it will feel like déjà vu. Just look at 2017-18 when Ottawa was 8-3-5 after the Sweden trip and things were looking up with Matt Duchene on the roster. Then they went 1-10-2 over their next 13 games, effectively ending their season. We've become accustomed to horrendous stretches of play in the first few months, so I wouldn't even be surprised if we get that yet again.
Their overall play has some positives and negatives, and it's too early to tell if we should be buying in this season or if we should be worried. They sit 18th in CF% at 49.31% and 16th in xGF% at 49.10%, so they're about middle of the pack, but they've yet to get the full Linus Ullmark factor, are 2nd in powerplay goals per 60 (17.55), and have been missing Artem Zub, Shane Pinto, and David Perron. There are some less appealing offensive creation stats, and I don't love their overall depth if there are more injuries, but in general, this is still a team that is good enough to beat out other fringe playoff teams to make it this year.
It's sad that it even needs to be noted that the Senators finished their first month over .500 because, for a true playoff team, that should happen every month. It's a small step, but it's a step nonetheless, and their 8-1 win over St. Louis got things back on track for the Senators as they try to finally break their playoff drought.
