Examining Past Teams Who Made the Playoff Jump

Every year, there are a swath of teams who didn't make the playoffs the year before that have realistic hopes of making it in the current year. And every year, many of those teams end up disappointed they failed to make it in again.

While the NHL has lots of parity, which I think is good, there has been less turnover from year to year lately than you'd think. The Ottawa Senators are of course hoping they can buck that trend so they don't miss the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season. I wanted to look at how many Eastern Conference teams in the most recent seasons have gone from non-playoff to playoff team and how hard that can be. I could go back as far as I want and include the Western Conference as well, but to keep it simple and not spend a week researching, I examined the previous 10 NHL seasons for the Eastern Conference.

For starters, we need an important context that the Senators finished with 78 points, which was 13 behind the 8th-place Washington Capitals. Over the past 10 seasons, the average final Eastern wildcard team has had 95 points, so I'm going to assume that Ottawa will need to gain 17 points to make it into the playoffs. It could be more or it could be less but we won't know until April.

Here is a handy dandy chart I made noting the point totals for the 2nd wildcard teams, how many new teams made it into the playoffs, as well as how many points they gained from the previous season:

*I used the top eight seeds when the season shut down to consider them "making the playoffs." Point totals are prorated.

**I counted all new Eastern-based teams, even though some of the divisions had teams from both Conferences. Nine Eastern teams made the playoffs, Montreal probably would have missed in a normal season. Point totals are prorated.

This table is fascinating to me because, from 2014-2018, there was actually a decent amount of turnover each season in the East. That's highlighted by a whopping five new teams making it in 2017, with Columbus, Toronto, and Montreal all gaining 21+ points from their previous seasons. However, in the six seasons since then, it has alternated between two or one new teams making it in. In fact, as I note in the asterisk above, the Canadiens probably wouldn't have made it to the playoffs in a normal season as they were on pace for just 89 points.

The Eastern Conference has had a fair share of star teams over this stretch, so it makes some sense that there has been little change during this period. The Tampa Bay Lightning were a dynasty and are still very good, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals were perennial contenders, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been regular season kings, the Boston Bruins seem to never die, the Florida Panthers have entered their powerhouse era, and the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers are consistently in the mix now. That's a lot of great teams with not much room for others—it's a miracle that the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, and others were even able to get in some of those years.

I'm not sure if these last six seasons tell us anything about the "state of hockey" other than the fact that some teams are being run way better than others, although it could be worth looking into down the line. While it may seem daunting that only 1-2 teams have been leapfrogging their way to the playoffs in the recent past, what makes me hopeful is that there are some massive point jumps for those new playoff teams. The Devils have by far the biggest one by gaining 49 points in 2022-23, and the Blue Jackets also improved by an impressive 32 points in 2016-17. Of the 21 teams listed, 11 of them gained more than the 17 points that Ottawa would theoretically have to improve by. The average jump in points is...18 points, so although 17 seems like a big number (and it is), there are examples of teams doing this every year.

That doesn't mean that Ottawa is destined to be one of the teams to do it though. The New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Pittsburgh Penguins all have a realistic shot at making it back in, and sometimes all it takes is some good luck for a few months. What is consistent about these teams that surprise people by getting back to the playoffs is that they are well-coached, have better goaltending than before, get some good bounces, and have good injury luck. Ottawa could get those, but it's way too difficult to predict.

Now, if I wanted to make this exercise a lot longer (and more painful hours), I could have looked at the Western Conference as well. By doing a quick glance at the most recent seasons, the Vancouver Canucks in 2023-24 (26 point gain), the Seattle Kraken in 2022-23 (40 point gain), and the Colorado Avalanche in 2017-18 (47 point gain) stand out as impressive examples as well.

Something like a 20-point gain is not out of the realm of possibility at all for the Senators. In their history, they've had point gains of 36, 18, 13, and 11 to make it back to the playoffs, and with the talent they have, they can do that again.