Five Thoughts for a Friday - Fisher Price Start Times

Let me start by giving a shoutout to whoever decided to schedule the games on this roadtrip in absolute serial killer fashion thus ensuring maximum confusion for those of us on the eastern half of the continent. I guess it only makes sense when you have three games against three of the wackest team name/jersey combos in the league (oh and Ottawa hosts the Seattle Kraken (yeesh) next Saturday for good measure). Anyway, at least one team won't hit the ice in their Halloween costumes--the Ottawa Senators are so back, baby.

On Ghosts

Hands up if you expected to see the Senators with a winning record and a positive goal differential despite their goaltending this early in the season. I should immediately clarify that I don't think Linus Ullmark or Anton Forsberg have played poorly to date (Forsberg just had the game of his career on Tuesday after all). Both netminders have (barely) posted negative goals saved above average per 60 at five-on-five (-0.19 and -0.06 respectively) in very small sample sizes. Could it be the Sens have actually scored in the clutch? Either way, it feels better than whatever we experienced last season, unsustainability duly noted. And hats off to the aforementioned tandem for slaying it on the penalty kill to date (4.10 and 2.46 GSAA/60 so far). Special teams have certainly become an unforeseen strong suit for this club in a real hurry.

On Goblins

Full credit to the Sens penalty killers who so far have hovered just about league average in expected goals per 60 (8.19 per natural stat trick) to make life manageable for said goaltenders. The have also performed about as expected hovering near the middle of the pack in terms of how much time they spend shorthanded. I would have expected them to have played a much less disciplined style given the roster additions made this offseason by Steve Staios so I'll certainly keep an eye on this trend throughout the season. Of course, the concept of building a pesky team pays dividends only as long as your team can force your opponents to take ill-advised penalties, and through six games the Sens have done a good job.

On Ghouls

Here we get to the smoke and mirrors as the Sens have notably played very few powerplay minutes with possibly misleading results. The Sens have shot an absurd 36% on the powerplay through six games and as mentioned finally come up in the clutch on special teams. I wouldn't necessarily set off any alarm bells even with the Sens ranking among the worst teams in terms of production on the powerplay (6.34 xGF/60 on the powerplay) as Vancouver, Dallas, and Toronto have put up even worse rates with even more top-heavy rosters. Sometimes it takes a while to really get cooking so ride the luck while you can.

On Goons

Other writers have touched this subject before but that won't stop me from mentioning the fact that so far in this young season the Sens have struggled both to generate offence and to cash in at five-on-five with their expected goals (2.27/60) and shooting percentage (5.71) ranking bottom six in the NHL. This certainly doesn't bode well (again, not that I would squint too hard at a six-game sample) and also seems really funny considering this team has a winning record and positive goal differential despite injuries to their number-one goalie and arguably their best defender. At least in terms of team defence, we have started (I hope) to see the benefits of the Travis Green effect as the Sens rank near the middle of the pack in terms of five-on-five expected goals against (2.48/60) despite the aforementioned absence of Artem Zub.

On Gremlins

In Zub's absence, I take some solace in the performance of Ottawa's younger defenders tasked with increased workloads, as Jacob Bernard-Docker and Tyler Kleven currently lead Ottawa's defenders in relative expected goals against at five-on-five (-1.46/60 and -0.7/60 respectively). We've written at length about the riskiness of betting on a season when those youngsters along with Jake Sanderson will carry a lot of meaningful minutes (not to mention whatever remains in the tank for Travis Hamonic). I still can't really get a read on the Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen pairing (they played well in Utah to their credit) and the success of the NoDak Sens could more or less make the difference this season. Speaking of NoDak Sens, Shane Pinto also leads Sens forwards defensively at -0.93 xGA/60 at five-on-five so maybe a college education really does pay off. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯