Five Thoughts for Friday: Goalie Depth, Sanderson's Trajectory, Liljegren Trade Option, and more

We're one week into the 2024-25 season and it's felt like a lifetime already. Five thoughts are here!

Goalie Depth

Linus Ullmark is the real deal. He's only played two games in Ottawa, but I feel confident in saying that he's going to be great here. That's lovely and all, but the modern NHL requires teams to be somewhat reliant on their backup (and sometimes third and fourth) goalies as well. Anton Forsberg looked better yesterday against New Jersey, but he still has an .864 SV% through two games so far, and Mads Søgaard is even worse at .765% after a forgetful performance against Los Angeles. As with everything this early on, things can change quickly, but it's fair to question whether Ottawa has the right depth behind Ullmark for a full season.

Forsberg hasn't been his full self since 2021-22 (when he tore both his knees), and Søgaard has been incapable of showing more than glimpses of being an NHL-caliber goalie. Leevi Merläinen could be an option at some point this year, but he has just 29 AHL games to his name and is a big question mark. Goaltending is a bit of a crapshoot, especially when it comes to which backups are good from one year to the next, so it's not the worst problem to have. However, I don't feel very comfortable with their options besides Ullmark if they want to succeed this year. If I were Steve Staios, I'd start targeting some teams that have three goalies who could move one for cheap.

Jake Sanderson's Trajectory

In Jake Sanderson's second full season and first after signing an 8-year extension, he took a big step forward by showing that he is a strong top-4 defenseman who can probably lead a blueline in the future. He led the team in average time on ice at 23:13, but that was only 10 seconds ahead of Thomas Chabot, meaning that the two of them were their go-to players. However, part of that is because Chabot missed 31 games, so it wasn't as if Sanderson was the clear number one defenseman in Ottawa.

In the very early going in 2024-25 though, Sanderson seems to have fully supplanted Chabot, and I think it's deserved. That's not a slight at Chabot either, it's a recognition that Sanderson continues to improve and is playing like a legitimate top defenseman in the league. His average time on ice has jumped up to 25:38, while Chabot is only at 23:29, showing a clear separation of preference from Travis Green. Sanderson has also been running the top powerplay, and although I think Chabot gets underrated there, Sanderson has done a great job at being the quarterback. He has one goal and two assists on the powerplay, and he has the skating and creativity to thrive there.

Sanderson is rocking a 53.27 xGF% so far, all while playing against top competition, which is very impressive. His career high in points is 38, and I believe that with the way he's playing and his skillset, he can crack 50+ this season. It's been so much fun watching him with and without the puck because he's a special player and might end up being the best player from the 2020 draft.

Don't Get Too High or Too Low

I said this before the season began, but it needs to be repeated: the season is way too long for us to get too emotional in either direction about every single game. Of course, there will be positive and negative swings, but we cannot be going from thinking the Senators are bound to be a playoff team in one period to thinking they're the same old team that always fails the next period. The amount of exaggerated rhetoric I've seen online so far is incredible for a team that is 2-2-0.

Have they started excellently? No, it's been a mixed bag I'd say, but it's far too early to ring the alarm bell. On the flip side, if they happen to win three in a row, let's not get ahead of ourselves either. Flip-flopping between extreme positivity and extreme negativity has given the fanbase an odd reputation and I don't love it. It's very emotional to be a fan of the Senators, I get it, but let's try to have some perspective while taking in these games. Be happy, be mad, but let's get to early December first before we're making big proclamations about who this team really is.

Zack MacEwen Impressing Early

One of the biggest positive surprises thus far has been Zack MacEwen. I didn't think I'd ever say that, but he's been flying out there in the three games he's played. He's only played 5:41, 5:14, and 9:49 in those games, so we're talking about a minuscule sample, but it's important to recognize players who don't usually get much praise. He had two goals on Monday against Los Angeles, which both required a good amount of skill on his behalf. Beyond that though, he's looking much more effective as a fourth-line player.

Despite playing 9:49 tonight, it felt like he played much more because he was constantly buzzing in the offensive zone. Through three games, MacEwen has a 57.14 CF% and a 49.33 xGF%, which is all you can hope for from a 12th/13th forward type. He has benefitted from some easier deployment, but as I said, by focusing on him while watching the games, you can tell he has played some of his best hockey. I'm not saying he'll be an important part of the team for a long time, but if he can be serviceable like this on the fourth line and provide the occasional offense, that'll be a huge bonus. He has no problem sticking up for his teammates as well, and we know how much Ottawa values that.

Timothy Liljegren: Trade Target?

It's no secret that the Senators' defense depth is less than ideal. With Artem Zub out, they already have both Travis Hamonic and Jacob Bernard-Docker in the lineup, with Hamonic on the top pairing. Tyler Kleven is already an unestablished player who is getting his feet wet, they need more competent veterans who can move up the lineup when need be.

They also don't have the assets to acquire a top player because their farm system is bereft and they need to keep their top picks to replenish it. They'll have to look at undervalued players who can take a bigger step in Ottawa, which takes creativity. One player who intrigues me is Maple Leafs defenseman Timothy Liljegren. The Leafs are reportedly trying to trade Liljegren, who is signed for $3M per year for this season and next. He usually falls out of favour with the Leafs come playoff time when they play more physical players, but he's undeniably had good results in the NHL. He's still just 25 years old, but in his three full seasons, he has been above average at offensive creation and limiting goals against:

He's not a perfect player at all, and he's polarizing to Leafs fans because he'll make some mistakes and he isn't the most physical player. However, I'd rather have a less physical player who consistently outplays their opponents instead of a very physical player who consistently gets outscored. Liljegren would be great to have alongside Zub and Jensen, as I see him in that same kind of tier—not top pairing, but he can play there in a pinch if there are injuries.

Ottawa only has $134,742 in cap space, but they're running a full 23-man roster which is not always necessary. The only way Liljegren would fit under the cap is if the Leafs retain 50% of his salary, which would make his cap just $1.5M. Even with that smaller number, the Senators would only be able to have one scratch at forward or defense, and some LTIR maneuvering would have to occur. I'm not saying it would be the easiest, but Liljegren could fit, and he would instantly help their depth on defense.

In terms of a return, Toronto is clearly trying to move him for anything, and because they'd be eating some money, Ottawa could move perhaps a mid-round pick like a 4th to get the deal done. I feel like if anything better had been offered by now, the Leafs would have pounced. Who knows if that offer is even realistic, but Liljegren is an intriguing name. If not him, I hope they're looking at someone else they can add this season.