Five Thoughts for Friday: Missing the (Ull)mark?

It's Friday, so it's time for Five Thoughts.

1. Is Ullmark OK?

I don't even have a pun for this one, I'm just concerned. Linus Ullmark came in with great pedigree. He looks calm and poised. The team seems to trust him. He makes great saves, especially ones that require quick reflexes when the opposing team's on the powerplay. And then... he just lets in some head-scratchers. I've seen lots of pieces saying while he will be OK, but the more I see him struggle, the more confused I am. He has 9 starts this season, and 3 with a save percentage of .890 or higher. Usually, a goalie who gives you a quality start a third of the time isn't a great goalie. What gives?

I have a couple theories. One is that whatever hurt him early in the season is still there. That could explain something that should be obvious like covering his post on the OT-winner last night. Maybe his body just isn't reacting all the time the way he expects, and that means some fluky ones float through him. It's also a small sample size. His -3.36 goals saved above average (via Natural Stat Trick) at 5v5 is 6th-worst among goalies with at least 10 games played. The thing is, if you look at the guys doing worse than him, it's guys who traditionally do pretty well like Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington (12th in the league last year at +2.62) and Sergei Bobrovsky (8th, +12.07 last year). And Linus Ullmark was fourth on that list last year (+15.95), slightly ahead of Jeremy Swayman (+15.20). So multiple goalies who are historically good are struggling to start this season.

Tt's not time to panic, yet. The problem is, once we decide it's time to panic, it'll be way too late to do anything about it.

2. #FreeJBD

I didn't think I'd be saying this, but Jacob Bernard-Docker has been steady this season. This has shown up especially in his 62.5% expected goals for at 5v5 (Natural Stat Trick), but he also looks better to my eyes. It's like he knows his role is make a simple play to retrieve the puck, make a simple pass. NKB had a great piece on Wednesday (one of our infrequent subscriber-only pieces) talking about how a guy like Adam Gaudette has had to learn to be a role player in the NHL after being a start everywhere before. I think JBD is similar. He was the captain and a stud at North Dakota, before which he was dominant in the AJHL. He's likely the best player ever born in Canmore, AB (I don't remember much of Alex Kaleta, since he retired in 1951). But in the NHL, he's not a Jake Sanderson. His goal is to be a Nick Jensen, a complementary non-liability. And I'd say he's doing that much better this year.

But, for some reason, he's only found his way into 9 games this year. I understand that the rule of thumb right now is, in the event of a tie, ice time goes to the veteran. However, I think JBD has shown he deserves at least the occasional rotation into the lineup, and elder statesman Travis Hamonic (who is 7 months older than me) could use some breaks. Meanwhile, Tyler Kleven has been good but also unchallenged on the left side. Who would've guessed that being right-handed would limit JBD's ice time?

3. Unsustainable Power

The Sens' powerplay has been a bright spot this season, cooking at 29.6%, which is 5th in the NHL. Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson each have 4 powerplay goals, which puts them tied for fifth in the league. The problem is, I don't think they can maintain this. In terms of chance generation, they're actually significantly worse than league average (via HockeyViz):

Now stats never tell a whole story. PDO or whatever you want to call it (on-ice shooting % + save %) is usually a measure of luck, but a guy like Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid can maintain a PDO above 1.000 for their whole careers because they make the guys around them so much better. However, the Sens have 16 PPGs this season on 8.4 expected PPGs. Yes the Sens have offensive talent, but are they good enough to be scoring at double the expected rate? In 2022-23, when the Sens were also dominant (23.5%, 8th in the league), they scored 72 PPGs on 75.3 expected PPGs. That's right, their powerplay was so dynamic, they actually deserved to even score a couple more. I do think the Sens' offensive talent is too good to stay at such a low expected goals number. I would like to see them force through fewer shots from the point and make better use of Josh Norris on the right side (look at that dark purple in Norris' wheelhouse in the chart above). I just also think we're due for some hard regression, and there will be a lot of pieces asking what went wrong with the powerplay, when really the signs are already there that it needs to be fixed.

4. Karl Me Maybe?

The Penguins traded Lars Eller this week, and it looks like they're now going to enter a full tear-it-down. Which inevitably leads to the question, will Erik Karlsson return to the Sens? From a team point of view, it basically makes no sense. Karlsson isn't off to a great start (10 points in 18 games), likely due to the Penguins' mess of a start. He's doing great in 5v5 expected goals % (55.4, Natural Stat Trick) and his minus-7 is mostly due to the .875 save percentage he's getting while on the ice. But what he brings (dynamism, offensive skill, puck movement) isn't necessarily what the Sens are looking for. Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are probably better complemented by Zub or Jensen. Karlsson won his Norris Trophies in Ottawa with Marc Methot and Filip Kuba as his partners. Sometimes too much of a good thing is a problem. Given Karlsson's age, injury history, salary, and skillset, he's not a great fit.

However, for nostalgic reasons, I want him. A lot. The Sens have $1M in cap space, and Karlsson's cap hit (after the Sharks' retention) is $10M. It's basically impossible without getting 5 teams to retain salary. And yet I would absolutely love it if he came home. My head says no, my heart says at any cost. Thankfully Steve Staios is in charge of this team, not me.

5. I'm Still Standing(s)

The Atlantic Division is turning into a dogfight. Here's where things stand right now:

Florida is in the lead, Toronto is right there (though the Matthews injury is likely scaring them), and then it's 5 teams within 3 points that could be tied depending on how the games in hand shake down. Most of the time, by mid-November the standings seem out of hand and I stop paying attention. This year, it seems like I'm going to be looking at them every day for the next couple months at least. I don't know how you call this. A pair of wins or losses will catapult or tank any team in the middle of that pack. I guess we can't get too high after a win or too low after a loss because the next game is just as important. I guess the important thing is to remember to have perspective. If the Sens keep playing ~.500 hockey, we'll exhaust ourselves the way we've been monitoring the standings so far. But hey, it's never too early to scoreboard watch, right? Go Ducks!