Five Thoughts for Friday:

Not to get too deep into psychoanalyzing the Ottawa Senators' fanbase, but here is my basic summary of what I've been reading/hearing since last night's humbling defeat at the hands of the Boston Bruins:

Anyways, let's get to our Friday Thoughts, shall we?

Testing Grounds

We all said we wanted a play-off chase. We wanted to remember what it feels like to watch the Ottawa Senators compete in a game that had real stakes. It has, after all, been eight long years since the Sens suited up for a match-up that meant much of anything. But while I'm not saying that I regret that longing, the ups and down of being a fringe play-off team is taking years off my life. Sunday evening I was positively floating, but by 10:30 last night I was in the dumps. Some untimely injuries and two consecutive dud performances will do that for you.

I came across this visualization of the current Sens' fan experience last night and it felt pretty accurate to me:

This is our life for next 3 months

[image or embed]

— SensMonster (@sensmonster.bsky.social) January 23, 2025 at 10:18 PM

I've always strived to keep a level head in my writing because it's very easy to get caught up in the short term emotional swings and lose sight of the bigger picture. But we're also a fan site, with all the content written by fans of the team, for fans of the team. Every once in a while it's not to bad to indulge in a little venting session.

The good news is that Saturday night brings a Hockey Night in Canada match-up with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and nothing gets me right back in a good mood than a triumph over our provincial rivals.

Injuries Happen

Speaking of being tested, the Sens have run into their first real bout of bad injury luck in the last couple of weeks. Yes, Linus Ullmark has already missed extensive time, but beyond him Ottawa has actually been relatively healthy all told. Quantifying the impact of injuries is a bit of a tricky proposition, but for my money the Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) methodology is probably getting the closest to the mark. NHL Injury Viz has a handy little tool:

As of last week, the Sens were 16th in the league by CHIP – and that feels about right to me. Do I wish that Ullmark hadn't missed the last month plus? Yes of course. But on net it's hard to complain. Over the course of an 82 game season injuries happen, and good teams find a way to get past that.

The Depth is Being Tested

Beyond missing the immediate impact of the missing players, in last night's case Jake Sanderson, Josh Norris and Ullmark, injuries also force players up the depth chart. On the blue line, the immediate effect of Sanderson being out of the lineup was Thomas Chabot playing a whopping 29:40. Particularly in the back half of the third, when the Sens had a prolonged power play, and then pulled the goalie to push for the tying goal, Chabot looked like a guy who was running out of gas. The whole experience felt like a throwback to 2019.

Sanderson's absence was also an opportunity for Tyler Kleven to showcase his skills in an expanded role. Kleven had some bright moments, particularly on a couple of occasions when he smartly jumped into the rush, but also some real struggles defensively and his pairing with Artem Zub was far underwater by shots and chances. It was a bit of a mixed bag.

Up front, Travis Green maybe got a bit too smart by half when he slotted Nick Cousins onto the top line but it can't really be said that too many other forwards were making their case for prime time. Shane Pinto's season-long struggles continue (perhaps a story for another day) and Ridly Greig didn't exactly cover himself in glory (another story for another day). Right now the biggest problem facing the team is that the top guys aren't scoring, but the depth is also being tested and so far it's a big old "meh" at best. Over the course of a long season, Ottawa's going to need more from their non-star players as well as their stars.

Power Play Struggles:

The team's difficulties creating offense at 5v5 have been well-documented, but a perhaps less discussed problem for the better part of two months has been the ineffectiveness of the power play. When the Sens were scoring on every shot to start the season, the PP was converting nearly 40% of their opportunities. We all remember the heady days at the top of the league rankings. Ottawa's all the way down to 22.2% for the year, now 12th in the league. The hot start is also masking a concerning long term trend: the Sens are 21st in the league over the last 30 games, scoring on just 19.4% of their chances. Worse than that, the shot chart doesn't seem to suggest a team about to break out when their luck changes:

Two things that I think are noteworthy and reflective of what I see when I'm watching:

1) The Sens aren't getting shots from the most dangerous places on the ice. That deep purple area directly in front of the net is clear evidence of that.

2) The Sens are taking a too high percentage of their shots from the tops of the circles and the point. The yellow and brown areas show that.

This is exactly the inverse of what you want to see. Maybe the area where NHL tactics have changed the most in the last ten or so years is the way that modern power plays operate, where the objective is chances on the one-timer from the circles or right in front of the net. Either get a grade A chance, or don't shoot it at all.

Witness the Winnipeg Jets, owners of the best power play in the league:

Or if you want to get really crazy with it, check out whatever the heck is going on in New Jersey (the 2nd ranked PP):

Anyways, this is all a long-winded way of saying that I'm not a strategic expert but that it's pretty clear the Sens badly need to explore some new ideas with the man advantage because things are likely to continue to get worse before they get better in the current configuration – and the talent is too good for it to have to be this way.

Quarter Century Team

Let's end on a fun, light note. Now that we're a full quarter of the way into the 2000's (and wow I just felt myself aging typing that out), the NHL is unveiling their "Quarter Century Teams" for each franchise. There are 1st and 2nd teams, with three forwards, two defensemen, and one goalie who played for the organization between Jan 1st 2000 and December 31st, 2024. For reference's sake, here is the Colorado Avalanche line-up.

The Sens can't quite match the fearsome lineups boasted by the Avs over the last 25 years, but it's still fun to kick around some names. For what it's worth (almost nothing), here's how I'd line 'em up:

1st team:

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson

Chara-Karlsson

Anderson

2nd team:

Tkachuk-Stützle-Hossa

Chabot-Redden

Lalime