Five Thoughts For Saturday: Jensen, Pinto, Ullmark, and More!
A day late, but not a dollar short
We'll open Five Thoughts with a meaculpa: I botched the scheduling this week. I could make a bunch of excuses but the truth of the matter is that I just made a mistake and Five Thoughts didn't get scheduled. But we cannot be Silver Seven without the trademark weekly Five Thoughts piece. Thus, you all get Five Thoughts for Saturday. Enjoy!
Nick Jensen Has Been Better Than I Expected But Not In The Way I Expected
When Steve Staios traded for Nick Jensen, the operating theory behind the acquisition was that swapping out the skilled but volatile Jakob Chychurn for a steadier right shot defender would solidify the second pairing, and give the Sens the top four they've long been searching for. The good news is that this has worked like a charm: Jensen and Thomas Chabot have been formidable together, garnering a 55.70 CF%, 56.08 xGF%, and have scored 26 goals while giving up just 16 at 5v5. Chabot has, somehow, managed even better on-ice shot and chance numbers away from Jensen but that's a story for a different day.
I wouldn't say that I was skeptical of Jensen before the season started but I was definitely apprehensive: he did not have a good season last year in Washington, albeit on a bad Caps team, and he turned 34 before the campaign began. So while he's been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall impact, the way he's been doing it has been even more intriguing to me.
The secret to the Chabot-Jensen pairing has been good enough defending mixed with absolutely crushing offensive creation. Jensen's not the smooth operator that Chabot is, but he makes smart reads and he's willing to jump into the play to create offense where it's warranted. He's not Chychrun-level reckless, but a stay-at-home rock he is not. If anything, the times that he's gotten into trouble this year have been from overhandling the puck. His goal last night against the Hurricanes, and the Sens' first goal against the Ducks on Wednesday were great examples of Jensen looking to jump at the right time and Ottawa making hay out of the chaos created. It's not surprising to me that Chabot is thriving with a partner who can credibly make a play with the puck, I just didn't anticipate that being such a strength of Jensen's.
Linus Ullmark Is Good, and He Will Remain Good
Now that Linus Ullmark has given us an extended taste of elite goalie play, it would appear that any notions of a 1A and 1B situation with Anton Forsberg have dissipated.
Good!
It would behoove fans (and the Sens' coaching staff!) to stow this stretch away in the memory palace, to be visited again next time Ullmark has a rough couple of games in a row. The thing about NHL goalies is that their position is inherently volatile: the difference between an elite and a terrible performance is saving 93% instead of 85% of shots. For his career, Ullmark boasts a .918 SV% across all situations and, for three seasons running, has been one of the five or so best goalies in the world. Forsberg has a career .904 SV% across all situations for his career and has performed like a serviceable back-up for the better part of three seasons. The plan should be, and seems to be, to start Ullmark as much as possible without unduly taxing him. Forsberg will almost certainly play back-to-backs and in a few instances of three games in four days type of situations. There will be ups and downs, but, even in those downs, sticking with that plan is the best way to maximize the team's chances. Ullmark struggling? Doesn't matter, throw him out there on regular rest; he will figure it out. This is the way.
Are the Sens Ready to Step It Up?
An often repeated mantra around these parts is that the season is long, there will be ups and downs along the way, and that over-reaction to small samples won't get you anywhere productive. With the Sens now back over .500 thanks to a 6-2-1 stretch, we're in the midst of one of the ups. It's a good thing, too, because while the season has its ebbs and flows, there's no escaping the schedule. After today's home encounter with the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Sens embark on a nine game road trip that won't see them play another home date until January 9th. It's not like the schedule is full of cupcakes, either: the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, and Dallas Stars is about as daunting a five-game stretch as you can get. Two points out of a play-off spot with game in hand after 29 games is not ideal but doable. Worse than that, after 35 games, might be a real problem. Are the Sens ready?
Sweet Relief for Shane Pinto
Any successful professional athlete will tell you that one of the secrets to consistent success is to never get too high or too low. Everything you touch going in the net? Stay grounded. Can't hit the broadside of a barn? Trust the process and the results will come.
Still, they're human just like the rest of us, and at some point sustained failure can weigh on you. So there was nothing more fun for me from last night's game than the incredible look of pure relief on Shane Pinto's face when he bulged the twine in the first period:
You can almost physically see the monkey coming off the young man's back.
Evolution
Lastly, I thought this was a really fascinating article from Kevin Woodley at NHL.com on the topic of the on-going decline in save percentage across the league. Andrei Vasilevskyi and Jordan Binnington are both quoted as saying that they believe a big part of the change is a decrease in "wasted shots" that goalies handle easily.
This section in particular, bolded emphasis mine, really caught my attention:
Of course, not all shots from further out are the same. Part of the increased focus on what type of shots lead to goals has been an increase in targeted traffic in front of the goalie. And again, back to Vasilevskiy’s point, with that knowledge has come a decrease in the number of unscreened shots from the perimeter.
Former NHL goalie Steve Valiquette, who founded Clear Sight Analytics and works as a television analyst for New York Rangers broadcasts on MSG, said the number of unscreened shots -- he calls them clear-sighted shots because the goalie can see the release -- from long range is down 27.9 percent the past six seasons, and the amount of those shots from outside the slot has dropped 20.8 percent.
Some teams view those types of shots as a turnover, trading clear possession of the puck for the chance to win it back on the ensuing face-off.
There's a lot to unpack here, but the last bit highlighted above is an absolute sea change in attitude versus the last 40 or so years of hockey tactics. I will say that "get pucks on net" has always been a strategic pet peeve of mine, but to go as far as to call an unscreened shot a turnover is borderline heretical. And I love it.
Players nowadays are so good, and goalies are so good, that it's not enough to just play for a shot at the net – particularly on the power play. Why concede possession on a shot that only goes in 3% of the time? Getting a cross-seam pass to precede a shot, or just genearting a shot attempt from a high danger area, are the keys to scoring goals in the league today. I'm fascinated to track this evolution in tactics as it progresses – from the impact on goalies, to a broader strategic paradigm shift. Don't give it up cheap, make a play – and that means no unscreened shots from distance!
