Game 49 Hub: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators

The Sens return home hoping for some goals (and a win) against the Leafs

Game 49 Hub: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators
Photo by Caio Fernandes / Unsplash

For tonight's Battle of Ontario menu, I'd like to order what I had last time:

Lineups:

The Sens had an eventful practice earlier this morning. Jake Sanderson took part in normal line rushes, while Josh Norris was on the ice in a non-contact jersey. In worrying news, Nick Jensen missed practice, so Travis Hamonic will return to the lineup in his spot.

In goal, it was nice to see Linus Ullmark sharing a net with Leevi Meriläinen this morning. Anton Forsberg was in the starter's end after strong performance last time out against the Bruins.

#Sens lines from practice: Tkachuk-Stutzle- Perron Giroux- Greig-Batherson Cousins-Pinto-Amadio Highmore- Ostapchuk-Gaudette Sanderson-Zub Chabot- Hamonic Kleven-Mantipalo Sebrango

Alex Adams (@alexadamssn.bsky.social) 2025-01-25T15:31:47.593Z

Meanwhile, here's how the Leafs lined up at practice yesterday. They're without Stolarz, Hakanpaa, Jarnkrok, and Tavares – who are all on IR – while Pacioretty and Knies are also nursing injuries.

Leafs lines in practice: McMann - Matthews - Marner Domi - Holmberg - Nylander Lorentz - Kampf - Robertson Quillan - Minten - Reaves Rielly - McCabe Ekman-Larssson - Tanev Benoit - Myers Hakanpaa-Timmins Woll Murray Stolarz (departed) #LeafsForever

TML Updates (@tmlupdates.bsky.social) 2025-01-24T17:34:24.673Z

Game Notes:

  • With both teams missing significant players due to injury, there isn't room for that to be an excuse in the room for the Senators. As you'll see in the statistics section below, while the Leafs big boys are still putting up big numbers, the Sens are ahead in most key team metrics.
  • Brady Tkachuk is on a career-long nine game pointless streak, but had his best game of 2025 against Boston with 1.74 ixG contributions and five shots on goal. He’s due for a breakout.
  • Both fanbases are united in their search for a better powerplay. Despite markedly better personnel, the Leafs are actually behind the Sens in terms of PP effectiveness so far this season – converting on 21.7% of their chances compared to Ottawa's 22.2%. Ottawa has a much better conversion rate at home, which will hopefully end a putrid streak of just one PPG in their last seven games. They were 0 for 4 against the Bruins.
  • With Carolina making the first big trade of the season last night, I wonder if other "contending" teams will try to not fall behind before the February pause for the Four Nations tournament. I can't think of a playoff team that has a bigger drop-off in quality from top-six to bottom-six than the Leafs. I'll be watching to see which of the fourth lines will triumph over the other tonight – Belleville or the Marlies – and there's a chance for Shane Pinto to stop being snakebitten if he faces off against David Kampf regularly.

The game starts at 7:00pm ET tonight in Ottawa. You can watch on Sportsnet, CBC, Sportsnet 360, or TVA Sports 2.

Player Stats:

Senators Leafs
Category Player # Player #
Goals Brady Tkachuk 18 William Nylander 28
Assists Tim Stützle 30 Mitch Marner 52
Points Tim Stützle 45 Mitch Marner 67
Shots Brady Tkachuk 191 William Nylander 166
TOI/GP Jake Sanderson 24:26:00 Mitch Marner 21:27

Team Stats:

Game 49 Senators Leafs
Category # Rank # Rank
Goals/GP 2.73 25th 3.12 11th
Goals against/GP 2.77 8th 2.90 13th
Shots/GP 29.3 11th 26.6 15th
Shots against/GP 27.2 10th 29.0 20th
Powerplay % 22.2 14th 21.7 15th
Penalty Kill % 78.3 18th 81.0 12th
Corsi % (5v5 SVA) 51.43 11th 49.16 19th
xGF% (5v5 SVA) 50.61 15th 49.86 20th

Not everyone can afford to pay for sports coverage right now, and that is why we will keep as much of the site's content free for as long as we can.


But if you are able to, please consider subscribing to help keep our articles free (and get a few extra perks).

Erik Condra
  • Ability to comment and participate in our community
  • Twice monthly newsletter available only to subscribers
  • Ad-free reading
  • Our undying love and appreciation
Brady Tkachuk
  • Everything from the Erik Condra tier
  • 10% discount on all merch
  • Access to any future paywalled content
  • A personal thank-you from the Silver Seven staff
Daniel Alfredsson
  • Everything from the Brady Tkachuk tier
  • Inner peace knowing you are supporting quality, independent coverage of your favourite sports team