Game 49 Hub: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators
The Sens return home hoping for some goals (and a win) against the Leafs
For tonight's Battle of Ontario menu, I'd like to order what I had last time:
Lineups:
The Sens had an eventful practice earlier this morning. Jake Sanderson took part in normal line rushes, while Josh Norris was on the ice in a non-contact jersey. In worrying news, Nick Jensen missed practice, so Travis Hamonic will return to the lineup in his spot.
In goal, it was nice to see Linus Ullmark sharing a net with Leevi Meriläinen this morning. Anton Forsberg was in the starter's end after strong performance last time out against the Bruins.
Meanwhile, here's how the Leafs lined up at practice yesterday. They're without Stolarz, Hakanpaa, Jarnkrok, and Tavares – who are all on IR – while Pacioretty and Knies are also nursing injuries.
Game Notes:
- With both teams missing significant players due to injury, there isn't room for that to be an excuse in the room for the Senators. As you'll see in the statistics section below, while the Leafs big boys are still putting up big numbers, the Sens are ahead in most key team metrics.
- Brady Tkachuk is on a career-long nine game pointless streak, but had his best game of 2025 against Boston with 1.74 ixG contributions and five shots on goal. He’s due for a breakout.
- Both fanbases are united in their search for a better powerplay. Despite markedly better personnel, the Leafs are actually behind the Sens in terms of PP effectiveness so far this season – converting on 21.7% of their chances compared to Ottawa's 22.2%. Ottawa has a much better conversion rate at home, which will hopefully end a putrid streak of just one PPG in their last seven games. They were 0 for 4 against the Bruins.
- With Carolina making the first big trade of the season last night, I wonder if other "contending" teams will try to not fall behind before the February pause for the Four Nations tournament. I can't think of a playoff team that has a bigger drop-off in quality from top-six to bottom-six than the Leafs. I'll be watching to see which of the fourth lines will triumph over the other tonight – Belleville or the Marlies – and there's a chance for Shane Pinto to stop being snakebitten if he faces off against David Kampf regularly.
The game starts at 7:00pm ET tonight in Ottawa. You can watch on Sportsnet, CBC, Sportsnet 360, or TVA Sports 2.
Player Stats:
Senators | Leafs | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Player | # | Player | # |
Goals | Brady Tkachuk | 18 | William Nylander | 28 |
Assists | Tim Stützle | 30 | Mitch Marner | 52 |
Points | Tim Stützle | 45 | Mitch Marner | 67 |
Shots | Brady Tkachuk | 191 | William Nylander | 166 |
TOI/GP | Jake Sanderson | 24:26:00 | Mitch Marner | 21:27 |
Team Stats:
Game 49 | Senators | Leafs | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Category | # | Rank | # | Rank |
Goals/GP | 2.73 | 25th | 3.12 | 11th |
Goals against/GP | 2.77 | 8th | 2.90 | 13th |
Shots/GP | 29.3 | 11th | 26.6 | 15th |
Shots against/GP | 27.2 | 10th | 29.0 | 20th |
Powerplay % | 22.2 | 14th | 21.7 | 15th |
Penalty Kill % | 78.3 | 18th | 81.0 | 12th |
Corsi % (5v5 SVA) | 51.43 | 11th | 49.16 | 19th |
xGF% (5v5 SVA) | 50.61 | 15th | 49.86 | 20th |