Game 64 Preview: Calgary Flames at the Ottawa Senators
Despite winning their last game and going 8-1-1 in their last 10, the Senators are 7 points back of the Boston Bruins with 2 games in hand, and will likely need to win most of their remaining games to have a shot. Luckily for Ottawa, despite digging themselves quite a hole, they play two more games against Boston at home. Those games may not mean anything though if they don't manage to win tonight, and the surprising Flames are no slouch, with a three game winning streak putting them ahead of Los Angeles by a point in the dogfight Western conference playoff race.
How have the Flames been doing this? Well it's certainly not on the back of a strong possession game like other Western teams. In fact, no Flames player is winning the shot attempt battle - injured Captain Mark Giordano is the closest, with the team almost even with him on the ice (49.75% CF%). Instead, it's on the back of the second highest EV shooting percentage in the league (9.84%), with many Flames players shooting way above their career norms. Yes, they work hard - with a structured forecheck and good backchecking pressure - but a lot of their wins have come off the back of a shot finding the net when it otherwise wouldn't, and it'll be interesting to see where the Flames land next year if their team shooting % decreases.
That doesn't mean the Sens can take the Flames lightly. Their young players like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have had fantastic years, much like the Sens duo of Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. Jiri Hudler has as many goals and more points than Phil Kessel, and TJ Brodie may be a Norris nominee. The Flames have also found ways to win in four of their past six games despite Giordano's injury, and their goaltender - much like Ottawa's - has been fantastic during their road trip. Ramo has a 0.952 sv% in his last five games, all of them starts.
Here's how we can expect them to line up:
Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler
Bouma - Backlund - Colborne
Raymond - Jooris - Shore
Bollig - Stajan - Jones
Russell - Wideman
Brodie - Engelland
Schlemko - Diaz
For the Senators, it's the return of their number one goaltender as Craig Anderson - who actually was an unsigned draft pick by the Flames in 1999 - gets his first start since his deep bone bruise. Many, including myself, were wondering whether Dave Cameron was going to roll with Hammond until the wheels fell off, but the head coach cited concerns with fatigue and that he needed to get Anderson in at some point. It's better that it's tonight than to put him directly in a absolute must-win against Boston on Tuesday. Other than that, there's no other changes for the Senators; Jared Cowen and Colin Greening remain out. Thus, you can expect them to lineup like so:
Michalek - Turris - Stone
Hoffman - Zibanejad - Ryan
Condra - Pageau - Lazar
Puempel - Legwand - Chiasson
Methot - Karlsson
Wiercioch - Ceci
Borowiecki - Gryba
(all stats from NHL.com or Natural Stat Trick)
Category | Ottawa | Calgary | ||
Player | # | Player | # | |
Goals | Mike Hoffman | 23 | Sean Monahan | 24 |
Assists | Erik Karlsson | 34 | Mark Giordano | 37 |
Points | Erik Karlsson | 50 | Jiri Hudler | 54 |
Shots | Erik Karlsson | 226 | Mark Giordano | 157 |
Average Ice time | Erik Karlsson | 27:02 | TJ Brodie | 25:14 |
Category | Ottawa | Calgary | ||
# | Rank | # | Rank | |
Goals For | 2.79 | 14th | 2.82 | 12th |
Goals Against | 2.59 | 15th | 2.55 | 13th |
5v5 Corsi % | 49.91% | 20th | 44.87% | 28th |
5v5 Fenwick % | 48.03% | 23rd | 45.94% | 28th |
Shots For | 30.5 | 14th | 27.1 | 28th |
Shots Against | 32.4 | 26th | 28.9 | 11th |