Linus Ullmark Will Be Alright

Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. That's been the story of the Ottawa Senators thus far in 2024-25, and they sit at 6-6-0 through 12 games. There‘a a good chance that most of the season will play out this way as they try to sneak into a playoff spot. There has predictably been a lot of "we've turned things around!" after every win and "these are the same old Sens!” after every loss, and I have to say, it's been a bit tiresome.

It feels strange to be the positive voice in the early going, but compared to what I'm seeing online and in the broader Sens community, I'd guess that I’m higher on the team than many others. One area in particular that I am not worried about is Linus Ullmark in goal. He obviously did not have a good game last night in their 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres, as he was a key reason for their loss, with -1.35 goals above expected. However, it's almost impossible to win with one goal, so it's not as if you can put the blame all on Ullmark.

Through seven appearances (and six full games, because he only played 4:46 in Colorado), he has just an .892 SV% and I've seen a whole swath of people worry and say he's not worth his new contract. Some of that might just be an exaggeration for Twitter's sake, but I believe many people are being serious.

If I may offer a counterargument: please take a breath. Ullmark has played six full games, that is not nearly a large enough sample to be worried or call him overpaid. Can we say he hasn't been good enough yet? Absolutely, he needs to be a great starter if he wants to be worth $8.25M. However, we need to look at the bigger picture.

If we dissect those six games, you can see that he's allowed 1, 4, 5, 1, 2, and 5 goals against—three great games and three bad ones. The save percentages in those games are .969%, .846%, .815%, .963%, .889%, and .853%. The save percentages look a bit worse because in the Rangers game where he allowed two goals, that was only on 18 shots, so he wasn't as efficient as you'd hope for. But if you're only allowing two goals a game, that's a recipe for success, and he didn't have much of a chance on those goals anyway. So overall, people are upset about three bad performances. Performances that certainly weren't good enough, but it's also just three games.

In the game against Montreal, he had a chance on all four goals, so it was not his best night. In Vegas, there were three that he had a chance of saving, with two deflections almost impossible to stop. And lastly, in Buffalo, there were four he had a chance on and one (maybe two) he essentially had no chance on. That's eleven goals that he might've been able to stop—but realistically, even the best goalie isn't going to stop every single one of those. That many stoppable goals allowed in a three-game sample isn't encouraging, but you have to also look at the three good games he has played as well, which puts those numbers closer to neutral (but not quite there).

Ullmark's goals saved above expected numbers are not good so far, as he's at -3.45, which ranks 64th in the NHL. But once again, this early in the season, all it takes is a few bad games to go that far down the list. I'm anything but a goalie coach, but it seems like the goals he is allowing are not necessarily due to a lack of mobility or his overall ability. Two from last night were just weird plays that he should have had and I don't know how those would be indicative of the future.

If Ullmark came straight from Europe and had no NHL track record, I could see why people would be worried. However, just look at his time in Boston and even Buffalo. His career SV% is .918% in 254 games, and it was a whopping .924% in 130 games in Boston. It wasn't just the good team defense in front of him in Boston either, as his GSAx during those three seasons was +57.29, which was 5th overall. Those weren't seasons of the ancient past, those were the past three seasons, so there's no reason to think that Ullmark has suddenly lost his game from one of the best to well below average.

Lastly, we need to remember that goalies are wildly unpredictable from season to season, and especially from game to game this early on. In 2023-24, Ullmark had a 7-game stretch in October with a .904 SV%, and a 4-game stretch in February with an .864 SV%. Then in 2021-22, he had a 9-game stretch in January with an .888 SV%. He was essentially perfect in his Vezina-winning 2022-23 season, but the point is that every goalie, even Ullmark, goes through rough periods and they can bounce back. Again, that doesn't mean we can't criticize his play during some of these games, but let's pump the brakes on calling his contract unworthy or raising the alarm bells.

If we're still talking about him with a below-average SV% (which is a measly .898% this season!) in a month or two, then I'll start to worry a bit. But for now, I still trust him in net and am going to assume he'll be able to carry the Senators to more wins. Linus Ullmark will be alright.