National Capital Region Junior Hockey Report – Week of October 1st, 2014
Covering the latest in news, scores and fancystats for the Ottawa 67’s and the Gatineau Olympiques.
We are back with another week's version NCR Junior Hockey Report where we try and cover all the latest and important news for the Ottawa 67's and the Gatineau Olympiques. It's been almost four weeks now that the QMJHL has been underway and the OHL just started its season. With the NHL camps well under way and plenty of cuts already made, higher end CHL talent is starting to return to the teams. Without much further ado, let's dive deeper into our two teams.
Gatineau Olympiques
After another week of play, the Gatineau Olympiques are now in second place in the West Division. They are tied in points with first place Sherbrooke but have one less win in one more game. Gatineau is currently at 4-1-0-2 and has outscored its opponents 26-22 which looks initially positive. League-wide, the Olympiques are tied with Rimouski and Shawinigan.
Thursday, 5-4 OT Win vs. Cape Breton
Gatineau started off its week with a game against Cape Breton at home. The game did not start off well for Gatineau as Cape Breton took control of the game early on, both in terms of possession and in scoring. Luckily the goals started to flow in during the second period. The game eventually went to overtime where the Olympique emerged victors at 0:33. Gatineau won 5-4 and led in shots 38 - 26. The goals came from Elie Bérubé, Louick Marcotte (2x), Alex Dostie and Jonathan Bourcier. Both goaltenders got to see some action with Gabriel Parent starting in net, playing 8:28 and making 7 saves on 9 shots. Anthony Brodeur came in relief to make 15 saves on 17 shots in 55:59. This was the last game for Gabriel Parent who left Gatineau to return to his Quebec Junior AA team.
Saturday, 3-2 SO Loss @ Rouyn-Noranda
The Saturday game started off well for Gatineau. The Olympiques controlled the puck for most of the game, as well as the lead. It was not until the third period when Rouyn-Noranda stepped up its game to finally score. The game went to OT tied 2-2 but nothing came of it, leading to the shootout where Gatineau lost 3-2. The goals for Gatineau were scored by Louick Marcotte and Alexandre Alain. Goaltender Brodeur played in net again making 20 of 22 saves in regular time and 3 of 6 in the shootout.
Sunday, 7-2 Win @ Val-d'Or
On Sunday Gatineau faced Val-d'Or at its home rink. Val-d'Or, the 2014 QMJHL Champions, has been a shell of its former self. Though possession was fairly even, the Olympiques just kept scoring with little in return from Val-d'Or. The final score 7-2 for Gatineau, with shots at 27-28. The many goals came from Louick Marcotte, Joey Richard, Alexandre Landreville, Jonathan Bourcier (2x), Yakov Trenin and Alexandre Alain Brodeur got a rest in this game with Nicolas Lachance, the backup goalie, making 26 saves on 28 shots.
Fancystats
No good analytics post is worth it's salt by only looking at the small sample size numbers. That being said, we can turn to CHLStats.com to get an overall view of where the Gatineau Olympiques are sitting. Reminder that it is still early in the season and that these numbers still need more games to regress to the norm.
| Team | Est. Fenwick Close | GP | SF | SA | GF | GA | SOW | SOL | Sh% | Sv% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rimouski | 58.943% | 6 | 215 | 144 | 31 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 14.419 | 84.722 | 99.141 |
| Drummondville | 58.3% | 6 | 213 | 141 | 22 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 10.329 | 87.234 | 97.563 |
| Saint John | 57.54% | 6 | 207 | 186 | 26 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 12.56 | 90.761 | 103.321 |
| Moncton | 55.882% | 6 | 189 | 179 | 22 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 11.64 | 89.944 | 101.584 |
| Blainville-Boisbriand | 55.721% | 6 | 168 | 148 | 14 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 8.333 | 88.435 | 96.768 |
| Sherbrooke | 55.51% | 6 | 225 | 182 | 29 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 12.108 | 89.56 | 101.668 |
| Acadie-Bathurst | 53.097% | 6 | 184 | 157 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 10.326 | 84.713 | 95.039 |
| Cape Breton | 52.56% | 7 | 237 | 224 | 36 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 15.19 | 87.054 | 102.244 |
| Gatineau | 51.362% | 7 | 199 | 190 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 13.065 | 89.362 | 102.427 |
| Victoriaville | 49.175% | 7 | 207 | 254 | 29 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 14.01 | 90.909 | 104.919 |
| Shawinigan | 47.94% | 7 | 212 | 222 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 12.736 | 92.76 | 105.496 |
| Halifax | 47.899% | 6 | 180 | 185 | 18 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 | 84.324 | 94.324 |
| Chicoutimi | 47.203% | 7 | 225 | 223 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 6.726 | 89.238 | 95.964 |
| Val-d'Or | 44.366% | 7 | 193 | 227 | 21 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 10.417 | 85.463 | 95.88 |
| Québec | 44.13% | 6 | 155 | 241 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 11.613 | 89.212 | 100.825 |
| Baie-Comeau | 43.541% | 6 | 170 | 189 | 16 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 8.876 | 88.298 | 97.174 |
| Rouyn-Noranda | 43.254% | 7 | 184 | 198 | 20 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 10.383 | 89.394 | 99.777 |
| Charlottetown | 36.226% | 7 | 174 | 247 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 13.873 | 87.854 | 101.727 |
Currently Gatineau is ninth overall in possession which looks to be the result of one bad game against Blainville-Boisbriand who are sitting fifth. If these numbers hold true then that means Gatineau has been achieving better results than their true talent and are likely to see some regression. Gatineau's PDO of 102.427 further suggests they have been lucky. But luckily these numbers are not too high that they will see an epic collapse. Expect them to start dropping towards the middle of the pack.
Players to Watch
Currently leading the team in goals is over-ager Louick Marcotte with seven goals in five games. Alexandre Alain and Jonathan Bourcier are in second place with four goals each. Leading the team in points is the enigmatic, draft-eligible, Yakov Trenin with 11 and Louick Marcotte is second. Scout Corey Pronman viewed Trenin this weekend saying he is "an interesting import" and has "size and a high level skill" Leading in shots, a statistic that is less subjected to random variance, is Alexandre Alain (22), Joey Richard (21) and Jonathan Bourcier (19).
The NHL Central Scouting Service has ranked all of the prospects that are draft eligible and they include a number of Gatineau Prospects with a grade of "B" (a 2nd/3rd round candidate). These prospects include: Alexandre Alain, Alexandre Carrier, and Yakov Trenin.
Upcoming schedule
In the next week the Olympiques have two games on the schedule. With both games at home, Gatineau will face Chicoutimi on Friday evening and then play Baie-Comeau on Sunday for a mid-afternoon game.
Ottawa 67's
Ottawa has finally begun its season. The 67's first game did not go well and right now the team is sitting in fourth place in their division tied for last in points with 0. Ottawa has only played one game which allowed many teams to jump ahead of them in the standings, a feat they should be able to make up soon.
Friday, 3-1 Loss @ Kingston
The 67's opened the season by playing the Frotenacs in Kingston on Friday night. The 67's were not able to keep up with Kingston despite the Fronts lacking its top-end talent in Sam Bennett. The score and puck possession was in Kingston's favour for most of the game. The final score was 3-1, with shots 22-34 in favour of Kingston. The lone Ottawa goal was scored by Ben Fanjoy and assisted by Jeremiah Addison. Netminder Leo Lazarev made 31 saves on 33 shots against.
Fancystats
With an even smaller sample size than the QMJHL the possession numbers at this point in the season are nothing but a mere guess. But so far they are not looking good in favour of the Ottawa 67's. With a few more games this weekend the 67's may find themselves at the top of the charts.
| Team | Est. Fenwick Close | GP | SF | SA | GF | GA | SOW | SOL | Sh% | Sv% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie Otters | 60.563% | 3 | 131 | 84 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12.977 | 91.667 | 104.644 |
| Niagara IceDogs | 59.375% | 2 | 84 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3.571 | 89.091 | 92.662 |
| Plymouth Whalers | 56.842% | 2 | 70 | 66 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12.857 | 92.424 | 105.281 |
| North Bay Battalion | 55.0% | 1 | 37 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10.811 | 84.375 | 95.186 |
| Oshawa Generals | 54.032% | 3 | 107 | 83 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12.15 | 91.566 | 103.716 |
| Kitchener Rangers | 53.846% | 2 | 71 | 63 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5.714 | 85.714 | 91.428 |
| Kingston Frontenacs | 53.763% | 2 | 66 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12.121 | 93.548 | 105.669 |
| Sarnia Sting | 53.0% | 2 | 78 | 74 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 7.692 | 85.135 | 92.827 |
| Peterborough Petes | 50.98% | 1 | 40 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 84.375 | 91.875 |
| Owen Sound Attack | 50.794% | 3 | 97 | 96 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12.371 | 92.553 | 104.924 |
| Mississauga Steelheads | 50.0% | 1 | 27 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18.519 | 90.0 | 108.519 |
| Guelph Storm | 49.438% | 2 | 65 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3.077 | 88.525 | 91.602 |
| Belleville Bulls | 48.889% | 2 | 70 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.429 | 98.413 | 109.842 |
| Sudbury Wolves | 45.139% | 3 | 87 | 127 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4.598 | 94.488 | 99.086 |
| Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds | 43.617% | 2 | 58 | 77 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17.241 | 93.506 | 110.747 |
| Saginaw Spirit | 43.137% | 2 | 76 | 84 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6.579 | 88.095 | 94.674 |
| Windsor Spitfires | 42.222% | 2 | 52 | 81 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5.769 | 91.358 | 97.127 |
| Barrie Colts | 41.892% | 2 | 58 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 12.069 | 85.484 | 97.553 |
| Ottawa 67's | 40.476% | 1 | 22 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.545 | 91.176 | 95.721 |
| London Knights | 37.349% | 2 | 53 | 73 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5.769 | 89.041 | 94.81 |
If things were to continue with this order, the 67's, which are currently second last in possession, will most likely not make the playoffs. Thankfully smart hockey people don't make decisions one a one game sample.
Players
With the team as a whole only having scored one goal this season, Ben Fanjoy leads the team in scoring. The OHL is the CHL team with the least amount of data so unfortunately we cannot analyze the players at a shot level.
Similar to Gatineau, a number of 67's were ranked across the spectrum: Travis Konecny (A - 1st round candidate), Dante Salituro (C - 4-6th round Candidate), Artur Tyanulin (C), Troy Helen (C).
Upcoming schedule
Ottawa has a difficult week coming up with a back-to-back-to-back schedule on the road. On Friday night, the 67's face Oshawa, then on Saturday the team travels to Barrie before heading off to Owen Sound for a Sunday matinee game at 2 pm.