Ottawa Senators 2024 Top 25 Under 25, #3: Jake Sanderson

Last Year: 3

Reader Rank: 3

If you noticed that Jake Sanderson remained at #3 in our Ottawa Senators Top 25 Under 25 rankings, you might assume that his sophomore season wasn't a major improvement on his rookie campaign. You'd be wrong.

Sanderson holding fast at #3 is much more a reflection of the two players in front of him than any perceived shortcomings on his part. In fact, there's a real scenario where he plays his way into the conversation for #1 by next season; but for now, the staff and the readers agree that he's just not quite there yet. After two seasons at the University of North Dakota, it's so exciting to see him turn into the player we had all hoped he would be.

Sanderson was plenty good as a rookie, especially considering he was stapled to a declining Travis Hamonic for most of the season. That strong performance saw him rewarded with an 8-year, $8M AAV contract a year ago; a deal that should be worth every penny. Sanderson posted 32 points in 77 games in 2022-23 and then 38 points in 79 games in 2023-24, which while not outstanding, still ranked 40th amongst defensemen and not bad for a 21-year-old (last season).

One statistic that does jump off the page at you when it comes to Sanderson are his low penalty totals, as he was assessed just 12 PIMs in his rookie season and only 23 last year. He only drew seven penalties last year, which actually gave him a -2 penalty differential, but that's high for a defenseman, placing him tied for 65th amongst 256 defensemen with 300+ minutes played. He was first amongst all defenseman in his rookie season in penalty differential at +11, an under-appreciated piece of value he brings to the table.

Fittingly, Sanderson was third on the Senators last season in Goals Above Replacement at 11.8, behind just Tim Stützle (14.6) and Brady Tkachuk (14.2). That placed him 24th amongst all NHL defensemen. For reference, some players he finished ahead of include Jaccob Slavin, Noah Hanifin, Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber, and Filip Hronek. Sanderson's 2022-23 GAR was a solid 5.6, but last season showed he was capable of so much more. With his most common defense partner in 2022-23, Travis Hamonic, the two of them had a 50.47 xGF%, and with Artem Zub this past season, the two of them had a 55.31 xGF%, which was 17th amongst 104 pairings with 300+ minutes together. It's clear how much of a difference it makes when he plays with someone more capable like Zub, as the two of them complement (and maybe even compliment) each other quite well.

Overall, his tremendous results speak for themself as he's shown that at 22 he's already a top-pairing-calibre defenseman worth building around:

Sanderson's measured on-ice 5v5 impact is clear, and a big part of the reason he's able to make a difference with and without the puck is due to his superior skating. He is capable of high-end plays, and he is getting better at making the best decision possible in almost every situation. That said, his player card shows that his special teams play leaves something to be desired. Sanderson will continue to contribute to the PK, an area where the whole team struggled. There is some question of whether he will continue to be PP1 under Travis Green given the results but all that will shake out soon enough. Regardless, his special teams play should not be an immediate concern for anyone – that too will come.

Sanderson ended up surpassing Thomas Chabot for most ice time per game at 23:13 (compared to Chabot's 23:03), and it'll be interesting to see if that gap widens and how Travis Green treats the youngster. The year prior, Chabot was at 24:58 and Sanderson was at 21:55, so last season marked quite a shift. Sanderson's shown that he has tremendous skill, and I'd love to see him have more of an offensive breakout as well.

The wider hockey world is also beginning to recognize Sanderson's current value and future potential, as he had four assists in eight games for Team USA at the World Championships, and he will surely be on the list of candidates for the Four Nations Face-Off in February. Locks on Team USA's defense include Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, and Adam Fox, then Sanderson will be battling with Brock Faber, Luke Hughes, Jaccob Slavin, Zach Werenski, Brett Pesce, Seth Jones, Brady Skjei, John Carlson, K'Andre Miller, and Noah Hanifin for five spots. It might require a great first half of the season, but it's more than just possible to make that star-studded roster.

Sanderson took a big step forward last season, especially in the second half, and he looks poised for another big campaign. The only question with him at this point is just how high he might go. The Senators should be able to bank on fantastic performances from Sanderson as a top-pairing defenseman for at least the next eight years, and that's music to every fan's ears.