Ottawa Senators Prospect Awards 2023 - Top Newcomer

Top Newcomer: Jorian Donovan (46%)

Runners up: Tomas Hamara (27%), Oskar Pettersson (11%), Stephen Halliday (9%)

Last Year's Winner: Zack Ostapchuk

Without any can't-miss picks in the 2022 draft (for the first time in years) the Ottawa Senators ended up with a really enigmatic haul of young players last summer. As a result, voting for an award like this one got a little less obvious than in some years past. Like a lot of folks, I had high expectations for Tomas Hamara with all of his upside (and I still have a lot of hope for him) and I viewed Cam O'Neill as my dark horse. After this season, I think I like Stephen Halliday and Kevin Reidler's long-term upside just as much. And I haven't even mentioned the first two players the Sens drafted, whom many of you vouched for, in Filip Nordberg and Oskar Pettersson.

Operating without picks in the top 30-45 also means adjusting our expectations for the top prospects in the system. We won't see a lot of game-changing players, and a good pick from this group probably means someone with a high probability of making it to the NHL even as a depth player (someone like Zack Ostapchuk) or someone with good offensive tools who will have a long road to the NHL with no guarantees (like Oliver Johansson). And I consider that a perfectly good thing because this organization has its core in place and I think the Tyler Klevens and Egor Sokolovs of the world will fit in just fine as perfectly adequate depth players on a team adding those final touches to its roster.

So with all that in mind, let's talk about the man of the hour: Jorian Donovan (hall-of-fame calibre name by the way). It still feels weird for the best Sens prospects to come from the CHL these days after years of NCAA dominance but I'll take it. Obviously we talked at length about Donovan's ties to the organization when the Sens drafted him last summer in the fifth round. While the online stats crowd didn't really like Donovan's first year in the OHL or this pick, the old school scouts expected Donovan to go as early as the second or third rounds (he went in the top-ten of the OHL priority draft (second defender taken after Ty Nelson)) and in hindsight I find it surprising that Ottawa didn't reach for Donovan. I think long-term this could end up looking like a bit of a steal. Again, I don't mean to say the Sens have a future all-star or Norris winner here, but a solid, everyday NHLer selected in the fifth round still amounts to a win in my book.

Just to give a quick recap of the scouting report on Donovan, he checks off a lot of the buzzwords we hear from Pierre Dorion and his staff on a regular basis. Donovan profiles as a big, mobile defender who skates better than his size would suggest. He has a very strong first step and a nice, fluid style. No surprises given his lineage, scouts praise Donovan for his athleticism and work ethic. He exudes confidence with the puck and makes smart, simple plays when backchecking. He also demonstrates a strong hockey IQ and good offensive instincts. I'll play the role of the bad guy here and say this past season probably over-sold Donovan's offensive ceiling and represents more of a statistical aberration, but I also think his overall two-way game will make up for his modest point-production long-term.

I don't, however want to detract from the strength of Donovan's season and his impressive offensive output (even if it sets our expectations a little high). With 12 goals, 33 assists, and 126 shots in 55 regular season games, Donovan led his Bulldogs team in counting stats among defenders. Among all U19 defenders in the OHL, Donovan ranked fifth in points-per-game this year (and 16th over the past five years). Again, this doesn't put him in elite territory or anything but he finds himself in the company of players with everyday NHL potential playing meaningful minutes. And while I don't put much stock into +/-, I can tell you that Donovan had an even strength goals-for percentage of 63.37 with Hamilton this season so even with the limited data available from the CHL, we still know the Bulldogs outscored their opponents with Donovan on the ice.

In terms of immediate projections, Donovan will likely play another season in the OHL and one would imagine the Bulldogs will have something to prove having gone from OHL champions to losing in the first round of the postseason this spring. After that expect a couple years of AHL seasoning with the odd cup of coffee in Ottawa. From the scouting perspective, it seems most interested parties wanted Donovan to work on his consistency. And to that point, even doing the prospect updates, it felt like Donovan either got first star of the week or had zero to report, with no in between. Other than that, Donovan got rave reviews so you would hope for more of the same.

The Sens' staff liked Donovan's OHL performance enough last season that they rewarded him with two games in the AHL down the stretch. Donovan doesn't have an immediate opportunity in Ottawa with the current defensive configuration but the roster could look completely different in three years and given Donovan's toolkit, the Sens will welcome the versatile, young defender to a place on the second or third pairing in Ottawa around 2024-25. He doesn't do any one thing better than the rest but Donovan provides a little bit other everything his coaches ask of him and he looks like the archetype of a Pierre Dorion pick.

Stay tuned for another shiny award next week, folks!