Ottawa Senators Top 25 Under 25, #11: Zack Ostapchuk

Last Year: 15, Reader Rank: 9

Zack Ostapchuk came into the 2023-24 season with cautiously optimistic expectations, as shown by his 15th-place ranking last year. After all, in 2022-23, he'd been decent for Team Canada at the World Juniors, with 3 points (2G 1 A) in 7 games. He'd also been dominant as the captain of the WHL Vancouver Giants (10G 19A in 21GP), but the Giants weren't a playoff team, so they made a massive trade that sent him to the Winnipeg Ice, where he had 21 goals and 17 assists in 34 games down the stretch. He also had 9 goals and 6 assists in 18 playoff games for the Ice, leading them to the WHL Finals where they lost to Seattle. He also seemed to fit the identity the Sens are building, with a toughness streak to go along with the goal scoring. Sure, he crossed a line and got suspended at the WJC, but mostly he just played hard and physical, with a couple fights a year. After all, for those who enjoy fighting highlights, here he is handing alleged tough guy Matt Rempe his lunch back when they were both in the WHL:

One year layer, I think it's safe to say his first pro season went about as well as it could. In the AHL, he had 17 goals and 11 assists in 69 regular season games, and also put up a goal and an assist in 6 playoff games (before missing the last few with a minor injury). He also had 47 PIMs including 3 fights during the season (but no PIMs in the playoffs). It's hard to find much info on AHL play, since things like time on ice, hits, and linemates aren't tracked, but we do know that he was second on the team in powerplay goals with 7, and also scored a shorthanded goal, so he was a key contributor at both ends on special teams. The shortie in particular was an impressive individual effort:

He's 6'3" and listed at 205 lbs (though I assume he's even put on a couple more pounds since that listing), and is known for using his size. Coach David Bell said that he sees Ostapchuk as a third-line NHL centre with sneaky scoring and penalty kill acumen. With a big frame, good speed, good hands, and what's often called "a willingness to go to the dirty areas", it's not hard to see why a coach would be such a big fan of him.

His strong AHL play earned him an NHL callup late in the season, which was particularly funny given the presence of Brady Tkachuk and Boris Katchouk already on the roster, though we never got to see the true Chuk-Chouk-Chuk dream. Probably once GM Steve Staios decided that Roby Järventie and Egor Sokolov weren't part of the team's longterm plans, it made sense to have Ostapchuk and Angus Crookshank getting the callups. He played seven games, averaging 10:30 per game, with no points and five shots. He looked a little bit out of his element in the NHL, but I also think part of that was deployment. Sure, he only got 41.2% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and 40.4% of the expected 5v5 goals, but his most common linemate was Dominik Kubalik (46 of his 72 total 5v5 minutes), and Kubalik was a possession black hole most of last season. Together, the two had 36.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts; when separated, Kubalik stayed at 41.9%, but Ostapchuk leapt to 52.4%. It seems like he was adequate in the NHL, but isn't strong enough to carry a linemate who's checked out. And he showed flashes of where he could contribute. Most notably, in his very first NHL game, Coach Jacques Martin trusted Ostapchuk to go out in overtime, where he intercepted a pass to Sidney Crosby, regaining possession for the Sens, which they would not give up until Drake Batherson scored the game-winner. Ostapchuk's contribution didn't show up on the scoresheet, but it was important. It's safe to say that his 7-game NHL audition was fine, showing that he could be a full-time NHLer, but also showing that he likely needs more development time.

As the astute reader will have noticed, there are two Belleville-bound forwards still to come on this list: Stephen Halliday and Angus Crookshank. I think the reason that Ostapchuk comes in just below those two is ceiling — the other two have shown more AHL-level scoring ability, while Ostapchuk doesn't seem like he's enough of a scorer to be an NHL top-six player. As a counterpoint, it's important to note that Ostapchuk is the youngest of these three, at just 21 years of age, while Halliday is 22 and Crookshank is 24 (and will turn 25 just before the season starts). So it may be unfair that we're a little harder on a guy who has more runway left.

If he stays under 0.5 points-per-game in the AHL this coming season, his NHL future will likely be in a fourth-line role. But if he makes a big jump in points, then his NHL ceiling will also probably be higher. Either way, his size, strength, and nastiness will mean that he gets NHL shots. I'm really looking forward to his upcoming season, hoping to see him develop as a power forward and/or a defensive forward. As two last pieces, here's his exit interview, where he basically confirms that the AHL felt like a step up from the WHL, and then a very thorough highlight video that shows every point he got last season. In that video in particular, look at the strength he gets on his wrist shot on several of those goals; it's that kind of ability that gives me hope that he'll turn into a decent NHL scoring threat.