Ottawa Senators Top 25 Under 25, #13: Jacob Bernard-Docker

Last Year: 11, Reader Rank: 11

In these rankings, it's pretty rare for a player outside the top 10 to get a full season in the NHL and fall further outside the top 10 the next season. It either happens when other players make big jumps, or else when a player's ceiling appears to be limited (think Mark Kastelic last year). In JBD's case, it appears to be a mix of both, in that players like Zack Ostapchuk and Angus Crookshank impressed in their smaller NHL auditions last year, and in that JBD did not impress as much in his 72 games of NHL action last year. He got so much time in the big leagues not because he was solid, but rather because the Sens were struck with injuries on defence, Travis Hamonic couldn't handle 20 minutes, and the necessity of waivers meant that the Sens weren't going to risk sending JBD down later in the season.

Off the bat, I want to say that I really like JBD as a person. I have relatives in Okotoks, AB who have billeted AJHL players, and through their network I've heard nothing but great things about the guy. I got the opportunity to interview him before he started college, and he seemed great. His character and leadership shone through in his time with University of North Dakota. He's the kind of player I want to see succeed in the NHL. As a high-character right-shot defenceman, he should be exactly the kind of player every coach wants. And I sincerely hope he comes into this training camp ready to show he's more than an NHL 7th-stringer.

It's hard to believe, but JBD has 104 NHL games under his belt. He got 5 after he signed his ELC in the spring of 2021, 8 the next year, 19 the year after that, and then finally 72 last season, when his one-way contract status earned him the first callup due to injury and then kept him around for the rest of the season. He averaged 15:42 per game in mostly a third-pairing role, and I'd qualify his on-ice results as getting caved. Check out the stats from HockeyViz below (for 5v5 and PK):

In summary, with JBD on the ice at 5v5, the Sens had 13% fewer expected goals and allowed 7% more expected goals (vs. league average), while on the PK they allowed 5% more expected goals. In comparison, without JBD, those numbers for the Sens were +1%, +1%, and -4%, so it's not a case of him being dragged down by a bad team. Further, if you look at where the worst results were, on offence, his right side of the blue line is a black hole of offence. He's not necessarily expected to be offensive, but on defence, you see the same issues: his right side of the ice is notoriously worse (more red/brown) than the rest. The numbers back up what my eyes saw: JBD is a little out of his element on an NHL ice surface. It seemed like a few times per game, he'd get the puck without pressure in his own zone, and then freeze, before either dumping it off the glass or else holding onto it until a forechecker made it all the way into the zone and tried to force a turnover. Either way, giving the puck to JBD, even without immediate pressure, ended up being a turnover.

I'd say the scoring numbers flattered JBD last year, as he finished with 4 goals and 10 assists. His first goal was pretty nice, a slapshot in which he had forever to wind up and pick his spot:

But from there, he became the luckiest goal scorer of the year. His next one was flat on the ice through a maze of bodies from the point, his third went in off Brendan Smith, and his fourth went in off Yan Kuznetsov. You shouldn't complain about goals, but it's important to not overinflate the meaning of him being fifth in goals among Sens defencemen in 2023-24. He was an offensive drain who didn't make up for it much on defence.

Now, after that negativity, I want to emphasize there still are silver linings. For example, he's only 24, and should still mature. A full season in the NHL should have shown him exactly what he needs to train to be a full-time contributor. Hopefully a summer of training helps him. It's not hard to see what his contributions should be. In the trip to Sweden last year, JBD threw a couple monstrous hits, like this one:

Everyone thought he was finding his NHL identity. He then proceeded to put up just 62 hits total on the season in 72 games, finishing behind noted body-throwers like Mathieu Joseph (105 hits), Tim Stützle (100), Drake Batherson (98), and even Josh Norris (86 in just 50 games). I can't imagine the coaches told him to stop being physical, so I'm not sure why he did it for only exactly 2 games on the season. The other place he excelled was in shot blocks, where he led the team with 156, or 8.28/60 min. Shot blocks are a double-edged sword, because if you're blocking too many shots, you start asking the question of why are you always in your own zone. But there are good players who end up leading the league in shot blocks, like Erik Karlsson in his prime. Last year, the NHL leaders in shot blocks included tough guys like Colton Parayko (218, 1st), but also skilled defencemen like Moritz Seider (212, 2nd) and John Carlson (194, 9th). Especially if a guy plays on the PK, he's going to need to block shots. JBD seems to have the tools to turn himself into a shutdown defenceman, not in the hulking sense — he's only 6'0" — but in the sense that his skating is good enough to get into position and then he's shown he can throw hits and block shots. After all, in an ideal world, if he can improve significantly, he's playing alongside Jake Sanderson or Thomas Chabot; he doesn't need to drive the offence, he needs to force an opposing player to turn the puck over then pass it to his defence partner.

This season is probably make-or-break for JBD with the Sens. If he shows he's steady in a defence-focused bottom-pairing role, he's likely part of the team moving forward. If he looks like he's struggling out there, Maxence Guénette likely gets an extended look, Nikolas Matinpalo gets another callup, the team tries to convince still-qualified Lassi Thomson to come back next season for a real NHL shot, and JBD and the team may decide a trade of his RFA rights is the best option for both sides. A guy who's a right-handed, 6-foot-tall defenceman will get a couple more shots to be a 7th defenceman in the NHL. If that's where he tops out, then #13 on this list is probably generous. But if he comes back and solidifies his spot, then he should've been ranked higher. He comes in at the average rank between these two, as we wait to see if JBD takes one last big step in his development or if what we saw last year is his ceiling.