Ottawa Senators Top 25 Under 25 2024, #17: Xavier Bourgault

Like how Senators fans wish they could go back to 2020 and flip Roby Järventie for JJ Peterka, Oilers fans wish they could go back and flip Xavier Bourgault for Jesper Wallstedt or Wyatt Johnston. Hence, it must be fate to have two cast-offs traded for each other – each prime for a new start after a disappointing AHL season, albeit for different reasons.

Bourgault was listed as the Oilers top prospect as recently as the end of the 2022-23 season – a time where Steve Staios was intimately involved with the Oilers front office. In this piece, like my introduction to Jan Jeník, you'll learn more about Bourgault's career thus far, and what you can hope to expect from the Québécois forward this season.

Selected 33rd overall in the 2018 QMJHL Entry Draft, Bourgault played out his full four years with the Shawinigan Cataractes and always featured among the top producers in his age group.

• In 2018-19, 20 points in 62 games ranked first among all Draft-2 players. In fact, only three Draft-2 players featured in more than five QMJHL games that year. A good start for Bourgault, as you'd expect an older player (born in October, one month into draft-eligibility that starts on September 15th) to be ahead of his draft class.
• In 2019-20, Bourgault's 1.13 points-per-game rate paced all Draft-1 skaters. He was the only player to be above a point-per-game, and there were only seven above 0.75 points-per-game league-wide. Only Blues first-rounder Zachary Bolduc, who scored 30 goals, came close to Bourgault's 33.
• Bourgault's draft year was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant that QMJHL teams played as few as 27 games or as high as 40. The Cataractes played 34, of which Bourgault featured in 29. Again, his 1.38 points-per-game rate paced all draft-eligible skaters, and his 20 goals in 29 games were a better rate than Montréal's Joshua Roy's 22 in 35.

Ranked consistently in the back-half of the first-round by most scouting outlets as NHL Central Scouting's 13th ranked North American forward, Bourgault was drafted as expected at 22nd overall. I've summarized themes from Bourgault's pre-draft scouting reports to share with you; for those who prefer video, you can check out a <5 minute video from the official QMJHL YouTube account below or this 15-minute video from Devils in the Details:

• "I like how he processes the game, has an [ability of] finding the open spots and has an elite scoring touch," NHL Central Scouting's Jean-Francois Damphousse said in an interview with NHL.com.
• Writing with Last Word on Sports, Kyle Pereira had Bourgault as high as sixth in his mid-term rankings, noting his skill to combine his read of the ice with his vision to make positive decisions in transition: "Bourgault has a knack for picking up his head and scanning the ice around him. He’s able to find teammates that are open and in a prime area to break into the offensive zone. When breaking out of the defensive zone, he uses quick, one-touch passes to a teammate nearby who is building up speed. He recognizes where the player is, where he needs to put the puck so they can keep their momentum going, and then puts it right there for them. It’s difficult to defend against because he is so quick at reading and reacting, and it shows on the stats I gathered."
• Many outlets praised Bourgault's shot and just how consistently he scored goals – improving from 0.52 goals-per-game in his Draft-1 year to 0.69 goals-per-game the season after. He doesn't overpower goaltenders, but instead, places it accurately from practically any body position – surprising defences. He doesn't need his feet to be set; he can change the puck's angle adeptly; and he consistently goes to high-danger opportunities to get his shot off.
• Bourgault's defensive zone play leaves much to be admired. Importantly, it's not an issue of hockey sense – his awareness and anticipation translates over to proper defensive positioning, and when he did line up at centre, he was able to support play down low. Instead, scouts would like him to engage more physically in puck pursuit battles and cut off lanes rather than passively "supervise" an area of the ice.
• Josh Tessler of Smaht Scouting compares Bourgault's skating stance to that of Roby Järventie, which is hilarious given how everything has played out. By that, he means their wide skate placement and challenges with over-extension impacts their overall mobility, edgework, and ability to pivot – all key traits to help them dodge traffic and create space against the first-line of attack at the NHL level.

In watching Bourgault's pre-draft interviews, he self-rated as someone who plays well with smart players – noting his enjoyment for spending four seasons with Stars first-rounder Mavrik Bourque. He shared that he thinks he utilizes open ice well, competes in small areas, shoots the puck, and creates for his teammates.

Bourgault saved his best QMJHL season for last, winning a QMJHL Championship with Shawinigan off the back of 75 points (and 36 goals) in 43 regular season games, followed by another 22 points (and 12 goals) in 16 playoff contests. Bourgault finished second in scoring at the 2022 Memorial Cup with 7 points in 4 games, as Shawinigan was eliminated in the semi-finals to Steve Staios' Hamilton Bulldogs. Bourgault was one of just 11 Draft+1 forwards to score above a point-per-game in the Q that season, with his 1.74 points-per-game ranking second to Habs prospect Joshua Roy.

The season wasn't all rosy for Bourgault, though. After the rush of excitement with making Team Canada's squad at the 2022 World Junior Championships, Bourgault received a head injury in his first game against Czechia; the tournament was cancelled soon after as a COVID-19 outbreak within the tournament bubble made it impossible to play games safely. After returning to Shawinigan, he was injured again – this time, his core – but thankfully returned in time to play in the QMJHL playoffs and the first Memorial Cup in three seasons. You can hear Bourgault speak about his rollercoaster 2021-22 season in this OilersTV interview. With the World Juniors restarting in August of 2022, Bourgault was one of the players who made the decision to skip out on the experience; instead, he decided to think longer-term and rest, recover, and train to focus on Oilers main camp.

Bourgault's two seasons in the AHL have been... mixed. For detailed summaries, including lots of video, I strongly recommend these two articles from Oilers Nation's Bruce Curlock [2022-23; 2023-24].

My summary?

Bourgault met expectations for his rookie season in 2022-23. He played well at Oilers main camp, established himself as a regular in Bakersfield's top-nine despite being the youngest player on the team, and scored at a decent rate – 0.55 points-per-game as a Draft+2 was only behind the Swedish trio of first-round picks of Eklund, Lysell, and Rosén. Importantly, Curlock's article goes into how Bourgault grew his game – succeeding on the Condors' penalty kill and displaying puck pursuit tendencies that he didn't utilize in junior. Oilers beat writer Bruce McCurdy noted that Bourgault would've likely gotten an NHL call-up later in the season but there just wasn't room, with the injury bug hitting the forward group at the start of the season rather than after the all-star break. Bourgault started the season well (7G, 4A, 11P in his first 20 games), had a usual mid-season rookie lull (2G, 6A, 8P in his second 20 games), and came on strong to end the year (4G, 11A, 15P in his final 22 games). All-in-all, a 60% goal-share at 5-on-5 is strong work for Bourgault. McCurdy and co. named him the organization's top prospect in the 2023 offseason, sensing opportunity after Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway moved up, and fellow wingers Reid Schaefer, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto were moved out.

2023-24 was a massive disappointment: Bourgault saw his points-per-game dip to 0.36 points-per-game, finished with fewer shots on net, got moved from the first powerplay unit to the second, and only saw spot duty on the penalty kill. Like Järventie, Bourgault sustained a shoulder injury, and while it was less serious, missing five weeks is tough. Now, some Oilers fans have beef with Colin Chaulk – former BSens assistant and Condors head coach for the last three years – and see him dishing out powerplay time to veterans like Drake Caggiula and Seth Griffith while prospects like Bourgault, Carter Savoie, Reid Schaefer, Matvey Petrov, and Tyler Tullio languish. On the flipside, though, Chaulk has led Bakersfield to the playoffs in each of his three seasons at the helm, and understands the balance between "development" and "winning" at that level.

What to watch for this season?

1. How long does Bourgault last at Sens training camp? The longer he stays, the better indication that new coach Travis Green likes his conditioning, compete level, and two-way game, and the closer he is to an NHL call-up. The Senators puck-movers on the back-end are primarily left-handed – Sanderson, Chabot – but the team only has one right-handed centre in Shane Pinto and a hole at right-wing on the fourth-line. Positionally speaking, there's room for Bourgault to make an instant impact.
2. David Bell knows Colin Chaulk well; Steve Staios knows the Oilers management group well. There shouldn't be any surprises with Bourgault – how is he utilized? Does he get special teams minutes right away? On which unit(s)? Järventie was only expected to have powerplay impact; if Bourgault can make a difference on both the powerplay and the penalty kill, I have more appreciation for the trade.
3. While Stephen Halliday doesn't possess the same skillset at Mavrik Bourque, they see the ice in a similar way. If Bourgault lines up at wing, does he find success in an offensive role with Halliday or a high-energy, checking role with Ostapchuk? If he lines up at centre, does he have the tools to create space for other shooters like Oskar Pettersson or does he need wingers who can play with the puck for him?
4. Since I expect Bourgault to remain at his favoured right-wing position, I'm most curious to watch his play along the boards. Can he be an asset in transition, like he was in junior, or do his skating limitations and lack of physicality doom him?