Playoff Preview: Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

For the first time in 21 years, the Ottawa Senators will be facing the Toronto Maple Leafs in the playoffs. This will mark the fifth installment of the Battle of Ontario, and, as you may have heard, the Leafs won the first four times. This might get mentioned a few times on the broadcasts.

We've got all of the ingredients of another classic series that will either end in pure jubilation or utter despair. The Leafs finished first in the Atlantic Division with a record of 52-26-4 for 108 points and are definitely the favourites – but shouldn't feel overly confident. An upset victory would be extra sweet for the sens.

Before the series kicks off on Sunday, let's preview the different aspects of both teams to see how they matchup.

Forwards

Here are the Maple Leafs' projected lines:

And here is what the Senators lines are:

If you go line by line, Brady Tkachuk is better than Matthew Knies, but Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are definitely better than Tim Stützle and Claude Giroux. Ottawa's first line is still good, but it's hard to match up against Toronto there. On the second line, David Perron is comparable to Max Domi, although John Tavares and William Nylander clear Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson. It's worth noting that Ottawa's second line has shown some great chemistry. If we stopped after just the top six, Toronto has the clear edge.

Thankfully, NHL play-off hockey is a four line affair and the Sens' thirdl ine of Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto, and Michael Amadio has been fantasic, putting up a 52.67 xGF% in 209 5v5 minutes together while taking on stiff competition. I'll definitely take that shutdown line over Bobby McMann, Pontus Holmberg, and Nick Robertson. If Ottawa keeps Fabian Zetterlund on the fourth line, they would have a big advantage of the Leafs there. Nick Cousins and Adam Gaudette have some offensive ability, plus Zetterlund scored 19 goals, so they could actually be dangerous (relatively speaking). Steven Lorentz is a fine depth player, Scott Laughton has struggled in Toronto, and Calle Jarnkrok is a bit of a wildcard. The Sens win the depth battle here.

In terms of overall offense, the Leafs potted 267 goals (8th), and the Senators managed 242 (18th). Their expected goals are a little closer at 249.84 (16th) for the Leafs and 246.34 (20th) for the Senators.

Verdict: Advantage Toronto

Defense

On the blue line is where things get really interesting as a Sens fan. Here's how Travis Green seems likely to line up his defenders in Game 1:

Sanderson-Zub

Chabot-Jensen

Kleven-Matinpalo

Hamonic

Gilbert

The Leafs pairings are up in the air due to day-to-day injuries to Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe, but I'll assume that they'll be good to go. This is guesswork, but they could be something like this:

Rielly-Tanev

McCabe-Carlo

Ekman-Larsson-Benoit

Myers

Rielly has the name pedigree, but Tanev is actually the better player there. Neither are them are better than Jake Sanderson though, so I'll take Ottawa's top pairing. Chabot and Jensen have been great partners this year, so it's hard to go against them when compared to McCabe and Carlo too. Then Kleven and Matinpalo are probably a bit behind Ekman-Larsson and Benoit, but not by much. I like some of the names on the Leafs blueline, but it's very beatable and not especially proficient at moving the puck.

In terms of overall defense, Toronto allowed 229 goals against (9th), and Ottawa allowed 232 (13th), so we are talking a minuscule difference. What's interesting is that Ottawa's expected goals are 240.98 (14th), while Toronto is all the way down at 263.06 (27th). That gap closes a bit when you isolate 5v5 time and look on a rate basis, but that still has Ottawa 14th at 2.42 xGA/60 and Toronto 19th at 2.53 xGA/60. Those numbers look similar when you analyze shot attempts against per 60 as the Senators are 15th (58.34), while the Leafs are 26th (61.42). The margins aren't huge, but Ottawa looks better by the quality of chances allowed.

Toronto does have the small advantage in actual shots on net, ranking 18th (27.62) compared to Ottawa's 22nd (27.75). The simple (and correct) conclusion is that while Toronto has allowed four fewer goals than Ottawa this season, their goaltending has been the reason for that. The Sens have been stouter defensively overall, and their defense corps looks to be the stronger of the two.

Verdict: Advantage Ottawa

Goaltending

A strength of both teams is goaltending. Anthony Stolarz is the projected starter for Game 1 as he started five of the final seven games, although Joseph Woll played seven more games (41) than Stolarz (34). Although Stolarz will likely start the series, the Leafs could easily switch to Woll if he is struggling. On the flip side, Linus Ullmark is the clear #1 in Ottawa, while Anton Forsberg is more of a traditional backup. If Forsberg is playing games, something has gone very badly and it's best not to consider that possibility.

Here are the key stats for each

Stolarz: 34 GP, .926 SV%, 2.14 GAA, +25.8 GSAx

Woll: 42 GP, .909 SV%, 2.73 GAA, +16.9 GSAx* (before stats updated last night)

Ullmark: 44 GP, .910 SV%, 2.72 GAA, +15.7 GSAx* (before stats updated last night)

Forsberg: 30 GP, .901 SV%, 2.72 GAA, +2.2 GSAx

What's incredible is that despite Ullmark having a very solid season, the likes of which the Senators haven't seen in years, Toronto has the edge here, as both Stolarz and Woll have better numbers than Ullmark. It's not that Ullmark was bad, in fact he was quite good, and he has an incredible ability to stand on his head and steal a game, which can be the difference between winning and losing a series.

Stolarz and Woll are also less experienced overall, so who knows how they'll react. Ullmark also hasn't had playoff success yet, as he has an .887 SV% in 10 games, but in such a small sample, I see no reason why he can't be successful this season. As much as I love Ullmark, it's hard to ignore the numbers here. That doesn't mean the Leafs goalies will play better, but they have the advantage as of now.

Verdict: Advantage Toronto

Powerplay

Toronto: 24.8% (9th), 9.25 GF/60 (7th), 8.93 xGF/60 (8th)

Ottawa: 23.8% (11th), 8.74 GF/60 (13th), 7.88 xGF/60 (20th)

Toronto has the slight edge on the powerplay, just one percent better overall. They also look better in terms of powerplay goals on a rate basis and for expected goals, which isn't much of a surprise given their arsenal. What's interesting though is that the Senators are first in the league in powerplay time per game at 5:21, whereas Toronto is at 4:16 per game (24th). Drawing penalties is sometimes random, but it is also a reflection of skill, and Ottawa has plenty of players who help in that regard. One thing that is almost a lock to happen is that at some point during the series Leafs fans will complain about Tim Stützle "diving".

So although the Leafs might be a little better on a rate basis, the Senators will probably end up with more powerplays, so I'll give this one a tie.

Verdict: tie

Penalty Kill

Toronto: 77.9% (17th), 8.10 GA/60 (19th), 8.48 xGA/60 (22nd)

Ottawa: 77.7% (19th), 8.08 GA/60 (18th), 8.67 xGA/60 (25th)

Just like the powerplay, the penalty kill for these two teams are eerily similar. It's so close that Ottawa gets just five seconds fewer of penalty kill time than Toronto, so it's not as if there's any separating factor. Neither team has been particularly good on the PK. Yet again, we have a...

Verdict: tie

Finishing

Toronto ranks 6th in overall shooting percentage at 11.61%, and Ottawa ranks 24th at 10.07%. Toronto is also +17 in terms of goals vs. expected goals, and Ottawa is -4, so this one is pretty clear. The Leafs, I will admit through gritted teeth, have some elite finishers. The Senators acquired Fabian Zetterlund to help with their 5v5 scoring, and despite looking great at times, he was only able to score twice after the deadline. Maybe he's saving it up for the Battle of Ontario?

Verdict: Advantage Toronto

Vibes

Let's be honest, the Leafs fanbase will be in shambles if they lose. If the Senators lose, people will be upset and annoyed that they lost to Toronto yet again, but I don't think you'd find too many folks that are expecting win the Cup this year anyway. The fan excitement over play-0ff hockey is palpable, the players are stoked to finally be getting playoff action, and you know they'll be amped up this series. The Leafs have had a great season, but there's always dread come playoff time, so you know they're wondering how they're going to mess it up this year.

The only verdict that matters: advantage Ottawa

Enjoy the series folks, I hope that they can finally slay the dragon.

GO SENS GO!