Saturday Silver Nuggets: Long Series Help Senators?

Not many pundits gave the Ottawa Senators much of a chance in their 1 vs. 8 Eastern Conference Quarter Final matchup against the New York Rangers.

The Rangers sat in first place in the east for most of the season, and were a legitimate threat to win the President's Trophy as the league's top team. They have probably the best goalie in the world in Henrik Lundqvist. They have probably the best pure shut down d-pairing in the league with Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh. They have last summer's top free agent all-star and former Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards to set up 40 goal sniper Marian Gaborik.

By comparison, the Ottawa Senators were supposed to be a team in a rebuilding, re-tooling year. They have an unproven playoff goaltender in Craig Anderson. They have an aging Captain Daniel Alfredsson and "playoff underachiever" Milan Michalek up front. They do have Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson, but the Rangers team defence was expected to contain those two players.

Yet here we are, the morning of game 5, the Senators have yet to hold a lead in any of the games this series, and we are all square at two games each. In a season that started with such low expectations, this is pure gravy for Sens fans. The season (in my opinion) has to be considered a huge success, regardless of the outcome of the next few games.

The question has to be asked however, the longer this series goes, do the conditions favour a Senators win? Much has been made by players and writers about the "pressure" factor. The Rangers were supposed to have a cake-walk in the first round, but instead have been outplayed in 3 of 4 games. Heading back to MSG, there has to be more pressure on the home team, right? Well, maybe. That is hard to quantify. What isn't hard to quantify however, is fatigue.

John Tortorella is a good coach. He knows how to get the most out of his players. What he also does, is lean heavily on his best players, and at some point, one has to wonder if that will start to affect their performance.

Dan Girardi has played 28:31 per game through the first 4 games. Not only that, but they have been HARD minutes, with 22 blocked shots. His partner, Ryan McDonagh, is much the same; 26:20 per game and 13 blocked shots, including one off the collarbone region in overtime in game 2. In Ottawa, Paul MacLean did his best to send the Chris Neil, Zack Smith and Colin Greening line out against the Rags big pair to make sure the two of them took some hits. Looking at the forwards, Ryan Callahan has played an insane 22:46 per game, which is 8th in the league among forwards, but he plays 2:00 more PK time a game than any player ahead of him in total TOI.

In addition to leaning heavily on his big horses, Tortorella has also refused to play his 4th liners. Chris Kreider, Mike Rupp and John Mitchell have all played less than 8 minutes a game, the latter two playing 5 minutes or less. Stu Bickel, the Rangers 6th d-man, has played a pitiful 5:48 per game-- last among all d-men to play 4 games and less than half of second last Deryk Engelland.

By comparison, the Senators have no player playing fewer minutes per game than Jim O'Brien's 7:39. Next among players playing all 4 games is Erik Condra, playing 11:44. The difference is shocking.

So the question remains, will the big horses for the Rangers be able to keep up their level of play with the high number of tough minutes? Or will the Senators be able to outlast New York and take over this series as it progresses.

I guess we will see.

Links after the jump!

Tonight's Game

• Reiterating what I said above, Scanlan talks about the Senators having the advantage, for now. [Wayne Scanlan]
• Optional skate this morning, this is what lines looked like: Michalek-Spezza-Butler, Foligno-Turris-Condra, Greening-Smith-Neil, Konopka-O'Brien-Stone. Daugavins et Klinkhammer extra. Spezza, Karlsson and Chris Phillips were all absent but are expected to play. Mike Hoffman was absent, however, so look for Stone to draw in, or Daugavins or Klinkhammer [St-Laurent Twitter]
• Prediction Panel: Not much optimism here, with Steve Lloyd picking Sens 4-1 (!) and Peter himself taking Sens 3-2. [SensExtra]

Sens Links (AKA Silfverberg Sentral-see what I did there?)

• Really cool feature on the Sens website. A "Fan Chat" where fans got to use Facebook to ask Kyle Turris some questions. He answers them very honestly though, and there are some cool insights. [Ottawa Senators]
• Normally reserved Nichols at the 6th Sens is riddled with Silfverberg fever, wanting him in the lineup as soon as possible, especially with the injuries Ottawa has up front to Winchester and that old Swedish Guy. [6th Sens]
• The other end of the spectrum, Ken Warren goes all bah-humbug on the Silfver parade. There is also a note at the end about the Senators shutting down top prospect Mika Zibanejad due to a concussion received in Baby Sens practice. [Ken Warren]
• Hopefully the Senators had a chance to check the site yesterday as Peter explored the secrets to scoring on all-world goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. [SilverSevenSens]
• There is a chance Canadian World Junior and Brandon Wheat King star Mark Stone will find his way into the lineup tonight. As pointed out by Peter, goals are being scored by rebounds in front. However, at this point guys like Konopka, Neil and Greening are the guys getting to the front of the net. Stone has sweeter hands than any of them, and may be useful. Should be interesting! [Matt Mariani]
• Lastly, in a must read, Mirtle heaps some praise onto Paul MacLean for the work he has done, and tips his cap to Bryan Murray for making one of the better hires seen around the NHL in a long time. [Globe and Mail]

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