Sizing Up The Competition

With the Four Nations Face-Off over, it's back to the grind of the regular season for the Ottawa Senators. They are getting back to it not just in a playoff hunt, but sitting in the first wild card spot for the first time in what feels like years.

But the field is packed. There are just seven points between Ottawa in that first Wild Card spot and Philadelphia at second last in the Conference, and worse - many of those teams have a game in hand on Ottawa. The only team in the East that is really out of it at this point is the Buffalo Sabres, though Pittsburgh and Philly aren't too likely to catch Ottawa specifically at this point.

With that tight race in mind, let's take a trip around the Conference to look at the competition.

Lightning

4 points up, 1 game in hand, 1 head to head

The only team ahead of Ottawa coming out of the break that the Sens stand a decent chance of catching. "Decent chance" might be stretching things a bit though, as they're definitely the strongest opponent on the list.

Their dip out of the divisional playoff spot came mostly off the back of a scoring cold streak that seems to have come to an end before the break, scoring 20 goals in the four games in the last week of play. Other than that they have pretty much been the team most people probably expected them to be this season and they're more likely to move up in the standings than down.

Red Wings

1 point back, 1 game in hand, 2 head to head

While the Wings sits a point behind Ottawa in the second wild card spot, the game in hand puts them very slightly ahead by point%.

They're a tough team to get a read on right now. They've been on a solid heater since Todd McLellan took over behind the bench, achieving a genuinely silly 15-5-1 record under him - which happens to be the best point% any coach has this season.

But how they've gotten there is all over the place. Right after McLellan took over they had a bit of a new coach bounce and their power play was red hot, scoring 17 goals in the first 10 games after the switch (on just 9.3 expected power play goals).

The power play has flipped since then with just six goals (on 9.6 expected) in the last 11 games, and the 5-on-5 scoring has been dropping as well. Overall, their shooting percentage in the last 11 games is about half of what it was in the first 10 games under McLellan.

But when the opposition goalies closed the door, so did Detroit's goalies. Their goaltending was under-performing during that first stretch, but flipped it when the scoring started to decline and allowed almost a goal per game less than when the scoring was hot... at least until the last two games where Talbot and Lyon combined for 9 goals against (on 5.1 expected).

So what are they? They've had a "score at will" stretch and a "shut the door" stretch, with a few games scattered in when they were both and when they were neither. Will the break derail their hot streak, or will it let them reset after a pair of messy games? I can't see them continuing at the pace they've had under McLellan, but who knows how little or how much they'll fall from it.

Blue Jackets

2 points back, even in games, 3 head to head

Columbus is definitely my pick for the surprise of the season in the Eastern Conference. I definitely wouldn't have put them anywhere near the playoff bubble this season but they're just a single point back of the last spot.

How? They have the third highest shooting percentage at 5 on 5, and have consistently been outperforming their expected goals - which they need, because their expected goal % is the seventh worst in the league. The goaltending has also been excellent in the past month, but was under-performing for most of the season before that.

They did hit a rough patch before the break, going 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and the "process" metrics falling off a cliff (41% corsi, 42% expected goals, 43% shots), though it only led to them dropping from being on the inside by one point to being on the outside by one point.

Bruins

2 points back, 1 game more, 1 head to head

The Bruins had been struggling to stay in a divisional spot through most of the season, and things went south for them coming out of the Christmas break where they were badly outplayed and earned a 3-6-1 record.

Funny enough their play started to turn around after that wild 6-5 loss to the Sens (which also finally pushed them out of a playoff spot for the first time in forever), but the points haven't really followed and they've spent the past month bobbing in and back out of a playoff spot.

They didn't exactly roar into the break, dropping their last two, and now Charlie McAvoy is out until at least early March with an injury sustained against Finland. This could be the season where the mighty B's finally fall, but I wouldn't count them out this early.

Rangers

4 points back, 1 game in hand, 1 head to head

This season has been a wild ride for the Rangers. Back in mid November, they were firmly in the mix for one of the Metro divisional spots, and then they self-destructed. On November 19th they had a point% of 0.735, which had dropped to 0.458 by the end of December and they looked completely out of it in early January.

A stretch of solid play later, and a bit of luck, and they climbed back on to the bubble with a 10-game stretch without a regulation loss. They've started to dip again, oddly mostly after adding JT Miller who has played well for them so far. Not quite as bad as they were through December, but their season might not be at the end of the roller coaster just yet.

Islanders

5 points back, 1 game in hand, 0 head to head

The Islanders seem to just be hanging around. They're playing a little above .500 hockey, with the results mostly matching the process. That's enough to keep them on the bubble for now, but they'll need to step things up to seriously threaten for a playoff spot.

Which they did do with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games before the break, though they seemingly did it by ignoring defense and letting the goalies pick up the slack. It mostly worked too, with the team adding about half a goal for per game and allowing about half a goal less. But with the three losses coming in the last four games before the 4 Nations and accounting for 16 goals against, things might be coming back down to earth.

Canadiens

7 points back, even in games, 3 head to head

Montreal almost got cut from this list, but those three remaining head to head games keep them on it. A regulation by the Sens tonight and you could probably count them out.

They played themselves into the playoff race with a hot streak that started before Christmas, and it was looking like that streak was built on genuine improvements in play... then they turned back into a pumpkin around the middle of January, and have been dismal since then.

With the three head to head games left they could climb back into it, but it feels like they are more likely to play spoiler than be a threat to actually catch Ottawa for a playoff spot.