Some Way Too Early Observations about the Ottawa Senators
Is it too soon to pass any kind of rational judgement? Yes. Will that stop me? No.
There's nothing like the first few games of a new season to get the Hot Takes going. We've had the better part of six months to formulate some strong opinions and, like many of you, I'm not going to let the fact that the Ottawa Senators have played less than 4% of their schedule stop me from making bold declarations.
So, three games into the year, what can I absolutely, definitely, 100% say for sure about the Sens that I promise I won't take back immediately if things totally change in the next few weeks?
It Might not Feel Like it, but the Defense has Been Mostly Fine
No one wants to hear it when the team has given up 12 goals in three games, but by shot and chance measures, the actual things that lead to goals, the Sens are doing just fine. Across all game situations, Ottawa ranks 12th in Shots Against, 13th in Shot Attempts Against (Corsi), and 9th in Expected Goals against. The Penalty Kill, which has been effective only 63.6% of the time, is actually 9th in xGA/60. At 5v5, their defensive profile is downright impressive:
You can look at this information in one of two ways: 1) the stats are wrong, the defense really has been terrible and the goals against are what matter, or 2) the defense has been OK-to-good but a combination of goalie struggles and the randomness of hockey in small samples has led to a large number of goals against. I tend to lean towards the latter, though, of course, it's way, way too early to make any kind of definitive proclamations about how things will shake out for the rest of the year.
What I feel reasonably comfortable saying at this point is that as the season goes on and the sample builds, some of the bad luck will sort itself out. If Ottawa keeps their shot and chance metrics in the top half of the league, I feel confident in saying that their goals against will eventually fall in line now that Linus Ullmark is in town. Will this team be a top five defensive unit? No, I don't think so. But they can be good enough with a good goalie behind them, and I'd say that based on early returns that's more than possible.
