Sterling Predictions, Part 1: The New Guys

With Training Camp kicking off tomorrow, the time has come for prognostication. In our annual Sterling Predictions feature, we, the staff, put ourselves out there and guess at what the season might bring. If we're right, we'll be showered in glory. If we're wrong, we'll be tarred and feathered.

Join us in the comments below!

In his first off-season as GM of the Ottawa Senators, Steve Staios made significant changes to the roster. Linus Ullmark, David Perron, Nick Jensen, and Michael Amadio all figure to play prominent roles during the 2024-25 campaign. How will each of them fare?

Ross: Ullmark will be the Sens' first goalie to post 30 wins since Craig Anderson, and will finish top-10 in the league in save percentage among goalies with 20+ starts. In short, he'll be good. Perron is going to look slow, and will struggle to produce like he has in the past being that he's stuck on PP2. He'll finish with 50 PIMs but only 20 points. Amadio will look solid in a likely third-line role, and I predict he will finish with more points than Perron, with 26. Lastly, ensen will be adequate as Thomas Chabot's partner. I predict he'll be the best partner Chabot's had since Dylan DeMelo. He'll show that he's not washed, but he is older than his best results in Washington and so will play a safe, complementary game. He'll finish with 12 points (1 fluke goal), but will play 20 minutes a night and will finish north of 50% in expected 5v5 goals.

Trevor: I'm feeling the most confident about Ullmark because he's a high-end goaltender who has been very consistent—something Ottawa hasn't had since Anderson. He'll play around 50-55 games with a .915 SV%. Perron will be a pest fans love, and he will put up around 30-35 points while not having the best underlying numbers but also offering a good veteran presence. Jensen will bounce back from a dreadful 2023-24 season in Washington, but he won't be quite as helpful he was before that, and he'll miss some time due to injury. Amadio will be a welcomed addition in the bottom-six and will help on the defensive side of things, although his play will suffer when multiple injuries occur and he is saddled with players who shouldn't be on the 3rd or 4th lines. He'll finish up with 25 points with the best defensive impact amongst all forwards. 

Owen: I can see Ullmark having a winning record even with a modest save percentage of 91 or so. If Perron manages 15 goals and draws more penalties than he takes then that will suffice. I don't expect Jensen to have Zub or DeMelo results but he still should buoy Chabot better than Zaitsev or Harmonic. Amadio will surprise us with a 20-goal campaign (even if it's a shooting luck fluke).

Ary: Like my colleagues have noted, Ullmark is the newcomer who has the opportunity to make or break the Sens in multiple ways. If he succeeds, there's a strong chance Staios and co. pay him fair market value ($7-8M per season) and he becomes the goaltender of record for this era of franchise history. To me, that means a 30-win season, a save percentage above 0.915, and a goals-saved-above-expected (GSAx) rank in the top-15 league-wide – which last year, was saving 16 more goals than expected based on the danger of the shots he faced. If Ullmark joins the list of struggling netminders we've had, it'll understandably lead to bigger questions about the defensive commitment of this team's core. What will truly suck for Ottawa is if Ullmark struggles due to randomness - natural fluctuations in on-ice shooting and save percentages - because the narrative will probably be one of blame regardless, given the lengthy struggles the organization has had with their in-zone play.
Next, Nick Jensen is being counted on to provide a stabilizing, defensive presence for Thomas Chabot. As long as he stays healthy, which is likely, I think there's a strong chance that Chabot rebounds this year. The team requires at least 70 games out of Jensen given the quality difference between him and his right-shot counterparts below him on the depth chart. My personal favourite next best option is Nikolas Matinpalo, but it's likely he's behind Jacob Bernard-Docker, Travis Hamonic, and Maxence Guénette in the organization's books.
Of the two wingers, I think it's more likely that Michael Amadio has the stronger season. He won't have the expectations of a top-six forward, and I think the team could really benefit from his consistent ability to play on the right side of the puck. David Perron is in the twilight of his career, but if Green plays him properly - on his natural right-side with linemates who can do the puck carrying for him - I think there's a chance he can still score 15 goals and 30+ points. But If Sens fans are expecting Claude Giroux 2.0, they're likely to be disappointed.

Shaan: To compare to players in those positions last season, I'd say that Perron won't be nearly as effective as Tarasenko, but will have some value on PP2 and won't kill an entire forward line's defensive metrics. Jensen will be mediocre, which is something fans of the Ottawa Senators should be excited for; mediocre is useful! I see Amadio as a lateral move from Joseph at the very least, with the potential to hit 40 points playing with Pinto and Greig, and going from Korpisalo to Ullmark might be the biggest positional upgrade for any NHL team this season.

Beata: Ullmark will have a winning record and the best save percentage a Sens starting goalie has had since Anderson. Perron will be slow and won't do much offensively, but he'll be a good veteran presence. Jensen's impact will mostly be felt in the form of an improvement in Chabot's game - he won't wow anyone, but he'll be a steady enough presence, allowing Chabot to thrive. And for my big, bold prediction: Amadio will score 30-50 points and become a fan favourite in his second tour of duty.

Nada:The biggest difference maker will be Linus Ullmark, who will hopefully be the saviour for the team and bring upon us the miracle of a winning record in November. I expect him to play close to 60 games depending on the health of Forsberg and/or any other changes tothe backup position. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to finish the season in the top-10 rankings for the NHL in most meaningful goalie categories.

I feel Michael Amadio will likely do a decent job quietly on the third line, maybe even have a few standout plays here and there but I am not expecting anything special from him. I am not ready to fully accept Perron, maybe he'll be an annoying pest and eventually win the hearts of some fans. Production-wise, I don't see him being a game changer, maybe 10-15 goals? Nick Jensen is a wildcard for me, I want him to do well and be a good partner for Chabot because he really needs a stable partner at this point. But I am being cautious on how much he can rebound from last year's subpar season with Washington. I'll be overly optimistic here and give him 3 goals on the season and a noticeable smart upgrade on our overall defense. 

nkb: Goalie performance is notoriously fickle, but Ullmark is as close to a proven thing as you can get outside of the league's true superstar 'tenders. He'll be good, though I'll note that these days a .915% counts as great so expect somewhere from .910 - .915. Jensen will be fine, which will be more than enough thanks to a return to health from Chabot and Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub handling a lot of tough match-ups. The pair will post very strong numbers, and Jensen will get an oversized amount of credit for "stabilizing" Chabot.

Michael Amadio won't do much offensively, but his responsible defensive play will make the third line a real asset in Green's arsenal. Perron will be the only real disappointment of the bunch, as he won't be able to keep pace on one of the top two lines or PP1 and his counting stats will suffer. The Sens will consider dealing him in the off-season.