Sterling Predictions, Part 2: Special Teams

In part 1 of our Sterling Predictions feature, I asked the staff how each of the new guys would fare this season. Today, we turn our attention to one of the stories of the Ottawa Senators' 2023-24 campaign: their under-performing special teams.

The Sens struggled badly on special teams last year, finishing 23rd on the power play and 29th on the penalty kill. With a roster that seems likely to take, and draw, lots of penalties, Ottawa will almost certainly need improved play to qualify for the post-season. Where will they finish in each category? What will be the biggest factors driving their performance? 

Trevor: It's kind of impressive just how bad the Sens' special teams were last season considering the personnel available to them. It's impossible to have a good penalty kill when your goaltender can't stop a beach ball though, so Ullmark should be an immediate difference-maker in that regard. I'll say they improve the PK from 29th to 18th, a little bit below average due to some of their defensemen inevitably missing time due to injury. For the powerplay, they'll also improve thanks to some better health for Josh Norris, although they also finish around league average at 16th. 

Owen: Ottawa has guys with good on-ice penalty kill results historically so with solid goaltending I think the team get rank in the 12-15 range. The Sens have long had the powerplay talent without the results (outside of the 2022-23 season), so maybe this is just who they are? I foresee another season when they top out in the 18-20 range.

Ross: Essentially the same personnel had a top-five powerplay in 2022-23 before the wheels fell off for a variety of reasons in 2023-24. I say Chabot gets back on Unit 1, there's consistency in the coaching staff, and they finish 6th with the man advantage. The PK is a different story. I'm not sure adding Jensen is enough to become world beaters, but at least Ullmark should be better than last year's disaster in net. I say they finish 14th.

Ary: Last year, here's who played on the powerplay:

Most of these players are returning, with Tkachuk, Stützle, Norris, Batherson, and Sanderson likely getting first unit duties, leaving Giroux, Chabot, Pinto to lead unit two. I imagine that Perron, Greig, Crookshank, and even Amadio could get powerplay time to round out the second unit. With a /crosses fingers/ healthy Tim Stützle, Josh Norris, and a full season of Shane Pinto, I see the group improving as a whole - finishing somewhere between 10th and 15th.
Meanwhile, the penalty kill has had a ton of personnel changes:

The defensive group looks consistent: Sanderson and Zub will continue to eat minutes (and do so well), while the team will hope that Tyler Kleven will emerge at the NHL level after being first over the boards in Belleville. Rather than have Chabot or Nick Jensen – who struggled last year on the PK – play tough minutes, I think Green will utilize whichever of Jacob Bernard-Docker or Travis Hamonic is in the lineup in this role. To give Hamonic credit, he continues to play well down a man; for JBD, this has to become a calling card to differentiate him and extend his NHL career.
The forward group will look vastly different. Gone are Parker Kelly (1st among Sens forwards), Rourke Chartier (3rd), and Mathieu Joseph (4th), and with all due respect to Claude Giroux (2nd), I'm sure the coaching staff would like other players to emerge. Who might that be? Well, we know Noah Gregor was brought in specifically for his PK acumen, and I imagine Ridly Greig will see a big jump in minutes in this area. Beyond that, it'll be interesting to see if Shane Pinto or Josh Norris are counted on for their faceoff acumen or if someone like Zack Ostapchuk plays a role if he makes the team. The Sens won't be able to qualify for the playoffs with anything near their 29th ranked unit and I don't think they'll be that bad again. But, I imagine the change in personnel isn't enough to make a big dent. I think they'll finish somewhere between 18th to 23rd.

Shaan: Both special teams will improve significantly and finish in the top half of the league. Tim Stützle, who shot 15% on the PP over his first three seasons, shot just 3.23% this past season, while you can't expect anything better than a 29th ranked PK when you have a save percentage of .826.

Beata: Improved goaltending will mean an improved penalty kill. As others have said, the powerplay personnel hasn't changed much over the last few years, so as long as the team is healthier than they were last year, I think the powerplay will improve.

nkb: I keep staring at that personnel across two power play units and wondering how in the world the Sens fared so badly on the man advantage last season. Some of that, as has been pointed, was just shooting luck, but their chance generation on the PP was just a bit better than league average. There's a lot of room for growth. With good health, and Chabot returning to PP1, I think they can creep into the top 10 for power play efficiency.

As Ary points out, the Penalty Kill personnel has been so radically overhauled as to make it very difficult to say much with any kind of certainty. I do feel confident about two things, though: 1) the goalies will stop more shots, and 2) Jake Sanderson will be a crusher on the PK. Whereas I'm not sold on him leading PP1, Sanderson should be basically the perfect penalty killer: he's hyper-alert to passes through the seam, has ability to cover a lot of space thanks to his skating, possesses an incredibly active stick, as well as the ability to win puck battles and then kill the clock. He's the total package. His impact numbers on the PK were only so-so last year but I think that changes in a big way this season and between him and Ullmark, Ottawa gets to a 12th ranked PK.