Sterling Predictions Revisited, Part 2: Special Teams

With the Ottawa Senators being off during the Four Nations Face-Off, the staff at Silver Seven have been looking back at predictions we made back in September. Nkb began with part 1 last week where we predicted how the new acquisitions would fare, with some solid guesses overall. Today I'll be analyzing what we thought would happen with their special teams.

The Sens struggled badly on special teams last year, finishing 23rd on the power play and 29th on the penalty kill. With a roster that seems likely to take, and draw, lots of penalties, Ottawa will almost certainly need improved play to qualify for the post-season. Where will they finish in each category? What will be the biggest factors driving their performance? 

For context, the Senators are currently 10th in the league on the powerplay at 23.4% and 20th on the penalty kill at 78.2%, so that's a rise in 13 spots offensively and nine spots defensively.

There are seven staff members who submitted an answer (Trevor, Owen, nkb, Ary, Ross, Shaan, Beata), and every single one of us predicted that the power play and penalty kill would improve. That's not too surprising considering they ranked 23rd and 29th, and obviously, if they wanted any chance of success this season, those two things were going to have to be much better.

On the powerplay side of things, answers ranged from as high as 6th (Ross) to as low as 18th-20th (Owen), with others being in the middle but still better compared to last season. I (Trevor) had them at 16th, Ary said in the 10-15 range, Shaan said in the top half, Beata said it would be improved, and nkb said in the top 10. We were all quite optimistic, citing better health from Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot, and Tim Stützle, and better shooting luck overall. However, there weren't too many specifics about who would be the most successful on the powerplay.

Nkb was perplexed at how last season went so poorly on the man advantage:

I keep staring at that personnel across two power play units and wondering how in the world the Sens fared so badly on the man advantage last season. Some of that, as has been pointed, was just shooting luck, but their chance generation on the PP was just a bit better than league average. There's a lot of room for growth. With good health, and Chabot returning to PP1, I think they can creep into the top 10 for power play efficiency.

Last season, their top three powerplay goal scorers were Brady Tkachuk (12), Drake Batherson (7), and Jakob Chychrun (7), while this season it is Tkachuk (11), Batherson (9), and Norris (6). They scored 51 powerplay goals all of last season and they're already at 43 with 26 games to go, so they should be able to smash their performance from 2023-24.

On the penalty kill, answers ranged from as high as 12th (nkb) to 18th-23rd (Ary). The staff was a bit lower on the penalty kill, but they still saw marked improvement coming up from their 29th rank last year. Other predictions include the top half (Shaan), 12th-15th (Owen), 14th (Ross), improved (Beata), and 18th (Trevor). Ary had some spot-on analysis that looks perfect right now considering they rank 20th right now:

We know Noah Gregor was brought in specifically for his PK acumen, and I imagine Ridly Greig will see a big jump in minutes in this area. Beyond that, it'll be interesting to see if Shane Pinto or Josh Norris are counted on for their faceoff acumen or if someone like Zack Ostapchuk plays a role if he makes the team. The Sens won't be able to qualify for the playoffs with anything near their 29th ranked unit and I don't think they'll be that bad again. But, I imagine the change in personnel isn't enough to make a big dent. I think they'll finish somewhere between 18th to 23rd.

While the powerplay guesses were a little too low, the penalty kill guesses were a little too high. Everyone was correct about their improvement, but Ary and Trevor were the only ones who had it below average still.

Overall, I'd say the staff has done very well with their special teams predictions so far. There are still 26 games to go, but the powerplay and penalty kill are both better, as we thought they would be. If I had to rank our predictions out of 10, I'd give us a 7, as we have been somewhat close to the right idea but not spot on.

How about you? Did you make a prediction in the comments section related to their special teams? Let's hear it!