Sterling Predictions Revisited, Part 3: Scoring and Winning
Re-Visiting The Biggest One of All
Part 3 of our re-visit of our annual Sterling Predictions revolves around the overall success of the Ottawa Senators this season, as well as which player would lead the club in scoring:
Everything that Steve Staios did in the off-season was with the goal of making the play-offs this year. After the dust settles, do the Ottawa Senators qualify for the post-season? What will their record be? And, bonus question, who will lead the team in scoring?
Here's a breakdown of each of our predictions for the team's record, points, and the hypothetical record they'd need over the next 26 games to match our predicted records:
| Staff Mamber | Predicted Record | Predicted Points | Required Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaan | 42-26-14 | 98 | 13-3-10 |
| Trevor | 40-34-8 | 88 | 11-11-4 |
| Owen | 45-29-8 | 98 | 16-6-4 |
| Beata | 43-29-10 | 96 | 14-6-6 |
| Ross | 38-36-8 | 84 | 9 - 13 - 4 |
| Ary | 42-28-12 | 96 | 13 - 5 - 8 |
| nkb | 45-28-9 | 99 | 16 - 5 - 5 |
While most of us overshot with our guesses on standings points seeing as Ottawa's currently on pace for 91, the door is still open to reach even the most optimistic benchmark from nkb at 99 points. 16 of the remaining 26 games are at home, and with a dominant record at home regardless of the quality of competition, there's reason to believe they'll strengthen their hold on a playoff spot as the season comes to a close, even if they definitely won't go 13-3-10 in the process. Loser points are still not easy to come by. They're not cursed anymore, but they're still the Sens.
It was widely cited throughout the staff that an improvement in the crease would be the driving force towards Ottawa's improvement, and while Linus Ullmark has been as advertised, with a .915 save percentage, nobody expected 2020 3rd-round pick Leevi Merilainen to come out of nowhere to provide a team-best .925 in 12 starts in Ullmark's absence.
Most of us predicted Tim Stützle to lead the team in scoring, which is indeed the case so far, with 56 points in 56 games. Guesses on points over an 82-game pace ranged from 85 (Ary) to 101 (Ross), and with all the discussion on how well the team has played in spite of a lack of scoring, it makes sense that the lower end is trending towards being the closest guess.
Owen and I were the only two staff members to choose different picks to lead the Sens in points, with Claude Giroux at 84 and Brady Tkachuk at 87 respectively, and with the former not quite being the same player he was two years ago, and the latter just plain ol' underperforming, neither is on pace to reach those marks.
Overall, while the team and players are currently projected to fall slightly short of most of our predictions, a perfectly-timed Four Nations break and a favourable schedule pave the way for improvement down the stretch. So, while I'd give us a 6/10 grade for Part 3 at the moment, I'm probably going to find myself bumping that number up by 2 or more by the end of the season.
