The Adequacy of Ottawa's Bottom Pairing

A lot has been made of the Sens' bottom pairing this year, as they've often been caved in terms of shot metrics. However, I'd argue that they're doing exactly what they're supposed to: play competent hockey, allowing the top two pairs to get some rest. The Sens' bottom pairing has been adequate, not great, this season, and I'm perfectly happy with that.

It's very easy to talk about the Sens' third pairing this season because, when the team is healthy, their top two pairings are solidified. Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub are the top pair, while Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen are the second pair. Sanderson and Chabot have both played 66 games this season, so comparing them is relatively fair. Sanderson plays slightly more per game (24:24 vs. 23:02), while Chabot plays slightly more at 5v5 (18:00 vs. 16:42 per game), likely due to Sanderson getting an extra 90 seconds on the powerplay per game. Also, Sanderson gets fewer offensive zone starts (38.4% vs. 48.5% at 5v5, all stats via Natural Stat Trick), so you could say that Sanderson gets overall tougher minutes. The Sens' top two pairings have been consistently together and consistently good this season.

This makes it pretty easy to separate out third-pairing stats. Donovan Sebrango and Dennis Gilbert have 20 and 6 minutes, respectively, this season, so we can safely ignore them from this analysis. Tyler Kleven has obviously earned the bulk of one half of those bottom-pairing minutes, holding down the left-side spot to the tune of 14:18 (all strengths) per game. The other side has been a mix of Travis Hamonic, Nikolas Matinpalo, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, though Hamonic also routinely jumps up the lineup when Zub or Jensen are out. This means that, to see how the Sens have fared on the third pairing, we can just look at all three guys' numbers with Kleven. I'll be the first to admit that the raw numbers aren't that flattering to Kleven. Take a look for yourself.

So yes, two big points: Kleven is sub-50% with all three, and JBD and Matinpalo both see their numbers rise significantly away from Kleven. (Hamonic's don't, likely because when he's away from Kleven he's being forced to play top-four minutes, which isn't where he's at in his career.) This suggests that Kleven drags down his partners. However, let's remember that if these guys aren't playing with Kleven, they're jumping up to play with Sanderson or Chabot, mostly in sheltered minutes. That's a significant jump in skill, and it's not fair to say that Kleven's the drain when he rarely gets time with either of Ottawa's top two defencemen. Kleven's stuck in a spot where he's a rookie, and his closest comparables on the team are Ottawa's two near-elite defencemen.

I would contend though that in fact the results Kleven gives the team are fine. I think the most useful chart to show this is the one below from HockeyViz.com, showing how Kleven fares compared to the other defencemen on the team. Notice how clustered the blue squares (when Kleven's on the ice) are.

It is wild to me to see just how consistent Kleven is, regardless of who he's paired with. He's firmly at ~1.9 expected goals per 60 and ~2.2 expected goals against, regardless of who he's playing with. (Natural Stat Trick has these numbers at 1.8 and 2.3, slightly worse than HockeyViz.) Yes, this is a net-negative, but it's also quite low-event hockey. It seems to me that Kleven and the third pairing in general have been coached to do simple hockey, suppressing chances and clearing the puck, not trying to do too much. This has translated into overall not great numbers in terms of expected goals for. I would also add that, while Sanderson and Chabot both tend to pinch in or even lead the rush, Kleven seems to play like he's been told to rarely go below the opponent's blue line. It's a low-risk strategy that seems like what a lot of coaches tell their young players, to not make mistakes even if it sacrifices offence.

My big theory is that, because of how low-event things are with the third pair on the ice, the overall drag on the team is minimal. Let's take the Natural Stat Trick net expected goal rate of –0.5/60; if they play 14 minutes a night, this means that they cost the team a goal every 8 games or so. If you subscribe to theory that a swing of 5 to 6 goals is the difference between a win and a loss, this means that Ottawa's third pair costs the team, at worst, 1.9 wins per year. That effect is negligible compared to most things on the team. And the bigger point I'd make is that, after watching years of Chabot then Sanderson (and Karlsson before them) get driven into the ground playing 30 minutes per game, seeing them both under 25 minutes this year is a huge relief. Not overworking both Chabot and Sanderson has to be worth more than 2 wins over the course of a season. And so while I'd love to see Quinn Hughes and vintage Zdeno Chara on the Sens' third pair, this is a salary cap league and that can't happen. I think a third pair that chokes the life out of the play, earning the coach's trust enough to play a quarter of the game, is a fine scenario.

Would I like to see Travis Green loosen the reins a bit and try to let his third pair take some more risks drive some more offence? Maybe. I'm curious how they'd do, but I also realize that's not really the point of a third pairing. For better or for worse, coaches like safe. They often see low-event as safe. This is the most trust the Sens' coaches have in a third pairing since... Borowiecki and Wideman? Preissing and Corvo? It's been a while.

I won't argue the Sens' third pairing has been good. But I will argue they've been adequate. Boring mediocrity is all the team has needed, and the third pairing has succeeded at that. The only other thing I'd add is that Tyler Kleven is only 23, and even Matinpalo is just 26 and still qualified as an NHL rookie too this season, so there's a good possibility they still improve from here. I don't think they'll ever be play drivers, but that's why you pay Sanderson and Chabot millions more per season. If the third pairing gives you nothing but doesn't give up much more, that level of adequacy for 14 minutes a game is fine with me.