The Ottawa Senators Play it Safe

On the eve of the Ottawa Senators kicking off their 2024-25 season, expectations are, once again, starting to run wild around these parts. For the third year in a row, Sens fans are gearing up for the team to end its painful play-off drought. Although the central cast of characters has not much changed (Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux, and Thomas Chabot have all been the leading lights for each of the last three seasons), there's some reason to be optimistic that the supporting cast at last has what it takes to carry the team to the post-season. If the Sens are anything but play-off contenders, then this season should rightfully be considered a major failure.

Over the course of the summer, I've spent some time compiling a theory of how Steve Staios operates. One thing that keeps coming back in my time thinking about Ottawa's GM is that he strikes me as being extremely professional, and that he prioritizes stability and dependability. Staios is also deliberate but decisive when it is time to execute on his vision; there are no half-measures around these parts. So while he's left the aforementioned core almost entirely intact, the supporting cast looks quite a bit different from the end of last year.

Consider Thursday's projected starting line-up, with the new regulars bolded:

If this season doesn't go as planned, I fully expect Staios to start making more radical moves involving his core players, but there's no doubt that the overall make-up of this squad is substantially altered from last season. There's a motif: virtually every new addition could be considered "safer", more dependable, more conventional than the departed player they are replacing.

The most obvious example of this type of swap is Nick Jensen replacing Jakob Chychrun. Regardless of whether you feel Jensen's best days are behind him, there can be no doubt that he will offer a distinctly different style of play than what Chychrun brought to the table. Jensen doesn't have nearly the ceiling of the departed Chychrun, but you can also rest easy knowing he won't be beneath the other team's goal-line on 75% of offensive zone possessions. Will he be better in aggregate? I actually find that hard to know, and much will depend on his chemistry with Chabot – but Jensen will absolutely be safer and the Sens are banking on that making a material difference.