The Ottawa Senators Will Make the Play-Offs if....

Nothing is given to you in the NHL. Every team enters each season with a measure of uncertainty. The biggest difference between the quality programs and the league's lesser lights is the margin for error. While the championship contenders have built up enough depth to withstand a few things not going their way, the play-off bubble teams need almost everything to break just right. Management for these organizations are forced to place a series of bets, and hope that they've done so judiciously.

For the Ottawa Senators, the goal this year is the play-offs or bust. To reach their objective, there are three big things that virtually all have to go right. The team could maybe get by with only two of the three, but I'd feel a lot more serene about where the Sens' 2024-25 journey will end if all of the below panned out.

I do feel quite confident, for instance, that the Sens' top pair of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub will be excellent, that Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk will be elite forwards, that Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto will ably slot into support roles, and that Linus Ullmark will be a marked upgrade on recent Sens' netminders. Those, to me, are givens. The issues I've laid out below are not necessarily bad bets by management, but they are not certainties.

The Vets Remain Productive

Importance: High

Likelihood: Decent Chance

Though the true faces of the franchise, Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Sanderson are all under the age of 25 as of this writing, the Sens are also depending on several older players to play key roles – namely Claude Giroux, David Perron, and Nick Jensen. Many readers will doubtless feel that including Giroux here is unfair given his time so far in Ottawa, but time waits for no man and Giroux is 36 years old. I will note that I am the most confident in projecting the ageless wonder as an impact player next season. Giroux hasn't shown any real signs of regression just yet. But it would be irresponsible to not at least ponder the possibility of some mild age-related decline ere.

Jensen, and Perron, on the other hand, are coming off down seasons by their standards. Here's how HockeyViz's sG model views their careers to-date:

Both Jensen and Perron have been useful support players for virtually their entire careers. Are they two vets who can regain their glory or was last season the beginning of the end? After all, the slow march of time turns even the greatest of triumphs to nothing more than sand washed into the infinite sea.

Sorry, that got dark for a second.

If I had to guess, Giroux still has the juice, and one of Perron or Jensen is in good form while the other continues on their slide to oblivion. No idea which one!

Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris Can Stay Healthy

Importance: Nearly Essential

Likelihood: ????

I'm not breaking any new ground when I say that Ottawa can ill afford to have two players that count for $16MM against the salary cap once again miss significant amounts of time. Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris get lumped together when it comes to their inability to stay healthy, but in reality they are quite different cases. Not to be grim about it, but Norris is facing the possibility that his body, specifically his left shoulder, will never again be able to handle the physical rigorous of NHL hockey. This isn't a comment on him as a player or as a person, sometimes injuries just happen regardless of how fit you are, but after three major surgeries on the same shoulder, his future is very much an open question. Norris is supposed to be ready for the start of the season, but it would be foolish at this point to pencil him in for 82 games. How many will he play? I frankly don't know how one would even begin to guess. When he was healthy last year, he didn't reach the heights of 2021-22 but he was a useful contributor. The Sens need at least that from him again this year.

As for Chabot, his ailments have been far more varied. At 27 he's no longer a spring chicken, and injuries will eventually break everyone down, but he's played in approximately 80% of the team's games since joining the Sens and I think there's a decent reason to believe he's shut things down early the last couple of seasons when the play-offs were clearly out of sight and preserving his health was a higher priority. He might also just be too run down to ever play 82 games again, but I'm at least optimistic he'll be making regular appearances.

So where does that leave us? This one is a pure guess so I'm choosing to be optimistic about it. My hunch is that Norris finally stays healthy, plays 70ish games, and is good for 28 goals. Meanwhile, Chabot's averaged 65 games played per 82 for his career, and that seems about right to me here. If the Sens get 65-70 games from him, and my predicted good health for Norris, things are really looking up.

The Third Pairing Can Keep It Together

Importance: Moderately Important

Likelihood: Not Great

The most likely options for the third pairing on the right side this season are some combination of Travis Hamonic, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Maxence Guenette. The first two have been ineffectual for the better part of two seasons, while the third has been unable to surpass the first two despite said ineffectiveness. So, we're not off to a great start.

By walking away from Erik Brännström, the Sens have made space for the long-awaited arrival of Tyler Kleven. Kleven has a lot going for him, as Shaan pointed out in his write-up this morning, but he's played a grand total of 17 games in the NHL and there's no real backstop if it turns out he needs some more seasoning in the AHL. I think there's a decent chance Kleven can hack it in the NHL but I'm not really sure he's ready to carry a pairing – which is what the Sens seem to getting ready to ask him to do.

Nothing relating to the third pair matters as much if the first two scenarios I wrote about in this piece play out in Ottawa's favour: if Jensen is useful, and Chabot is healthy, then, in all likelihood, the third pairing will be playing piddling minutes. Yes, it would hurt if they weren't competent but it wouldn't be debilitating.

My guess on this one is that the pairing struggles a bit as Kleven isn't quite ready and that JBD and Hamonic don't help matters, but since they aren't being asked to do much it's not a massive issue.

At the end of the day, the Sens will almost certainly not be among the league's elite, but they also really shouldn't be bottom-dwellers. They need some things to go right for them – will Steve Staios and co.'s bets pay off?