The Senators Desperately Need More Depth Scoring

Stop me if you've heard this one before: it's the beginning of December and the Ottawa Senators are in a free-fall, slowly losing control of their season. It's not as if we can write off the rest of the season, but they're 10-12-2 and sit five points out of a playoff spot with one game in hand. It's infuriating that they can't even be in a final wildcard spot or a point or two out this early in the season, which would be enough to get us thinking they have a good shot at making the playoffs. Instead, we're already questioning whether anything is different about this version of the team.

There are several issues plaguing this team such as poor goaltending, lack of execution at key moments, and mental lapses—sound familiar? I could go in-depth about any of those issues, but one I want to talk about is their lack of depth scoring, which has also contributed to their poor record.

The top of their lineup has done better than you could ask for, as these are the point totals from their best forwards:

All three of Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson are on pace for over 82 points this season, and Ottawa hasn't had three players reach that mark in the same season since 2007-08. They've been carrying the team, but they need support. There are some players in the next tier who have provided some offensive help like Claude Giroux (17 points), Josh Norris (15 points), Adam Gaudette (12 goals), Jake Sanderson (14 points), and Thomas Chabot (13 points). Gaudette in particular has been a "Gaudsend" because of his cheap contract and ability to finish well. Giroux and Norris have been fine, although it'd be nice to get a bit more from Giroux. Chabot and Sanderson have a normal number of assists, but the whole defense corps has just four goals, which isn't good enough this deep into the season.

However, the main point of this article isn't to talk about the tier of scorers after their best players—it's about the bottom of the lineup. And there are simply too many players who haven't provided nearly enough offensively. The four main forwards I'm looking at are Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Michael Amadio, and David Perron.

Pinto has just one goal and two assists in 16 games, which is not nearly good enough for someone making $3.75M per season. He had 27 points in 41 games last season (54-point pace) and was poised to be a perfect centre behind Stützle and potentially ahead of Norris, but he has yet to take that step so far and has looked lost for a while. He did miss eight games due to an injury though, so perhaps there are some lingering effects there. Pinto has 3.16 expected goals and is seventh on the team in xGF% at 52.84%, so he's obviously getting some bad luck as well.

His dreadful six GF and fifteen GA with him on the ice is a sore sight, although that's eight more goals allowed than expected based on shot quality. Even taking that into account though, he needs to produce more offensively, and his 9.25 shot attempts per 60 (19th on the team) is a far drop from last year's 16.57 (second on the team). Getting to play with more skilled players could make all the difference for him, but we might also be waiting for a past injury to heal.

Greig has been another frustrating forward because if Ottawa is going to take a step forward this year, Greig is a perfect example of someone who could help them get there if he becomes a force in the lineup. However, his start has been uninspiring. He has two goals and five assists in 21 games, which puts him on pace for 27 points—three fewer than his pace last year. He may end up being a 30-point winger in the long run, which would be fine (not ideal), but he'll need to clean up other aspects of his game.

He has been touted as an annoying player to play against, but I've yet to see that this season. In fact, I've only seen it be annoying for the Senators, as he took a careless too many men penalty in Los Angeles in the dying minutes and then another careless roughing penalty in Anaheim:

He's taken six minor penalties so far and drawn just three, so it's not as if he's like Tkachuk who takes a ton but draws even more. Greig rates as Ottawa's second worst forward ahead of just Noah Gregor on Goals Above Replacement (-1.0) according to Evolving Hockey, with not a single aspect of his game rating as a positive. What's baffling about that is Greig was third on the team amongst forwards in GAR last year at 8.4, so he's clearly capable of being an impactful third-line player. The only time he's been visible has been for the wrong reasons.

Then there's Amadio who I think gets a little too much criticism mainly due to his "big" salary of $2.6M. He hasn't been good enough offensively, although a lot of fans are more upset with him because of the money he makes, despite the fact that he was brought in more as a defensive specialist. He still ranks fourth amongst Senators forwards in defensive value (0.9) according to Evolving Hockey and is a useful piece to have in the bottom-six. However, five points in 24 games, a 17-point pace is not nearly good enough for that money.

He had point-paces of 28, 33, and 30 during his three seasons in Vegas, which isn't amazing at all, but it's respectable for a bottom-six player, especially considering he averaged 17 goals per season with them. I don't think it's too much to ask for that kind of production, and Amadio just hasn't been able to give Ottawa much offensively. Amadio is doing a bit better than Pinto with 10.53 shot attempts per 60 but is underperforming his 3.81 expected goals by just having 2 actual goals so far. What's even more frustrating is that he had a strongly positive offensive impact at even strength in Vegas (and even Los Angeles) earlier in his career, and this season it has dropped off:

Amadio is an interesting case because there are things to like about him overall, especially defensively, but for that kind of money, they need more points.

The last important player I want to touch on is Perron. He is of course going through some extenuating circumstances, and I hope his newborn daughter, his wife, and the rest of his family are doing well because they went through a scary time. He's also supposedly out for "a while" and has missed 15 games already, so it's been a challenging season. What he's gone through is a good reminder that there are more important things than hockey at the end of the day.

I'm not going to rip him too hard or anything, but in his nine games he has 0 points, and it's hard to look at that and be okay with it. On the bright side, he is first on the team in CF% and xGF% at 61.63% and 61.06%, plus he's second in expected goals per 60 at 19.79, so when he does come back, hopefully he's refreshed and in a good space to help the team. Regardless, he hasn't been able to help the team on the scoresheet so far.

Pinto, Greig, Amadio, and Perron have been the biggest detriments to the lack of offense in the lower half of the lineup, but it also hurts that the defense has just four total goals, as I mentioned earlier. Zack MacEwen, Zack Ostapchuk, Nick Cousins, Noah Gregor, and Cole Reinhardt are never going to be expected to put up big point totals, and they have combined for seven goals, which probably isn't much lower than you could ask for, it just hurts when the players in the tier ahead of them aren't producing.

It's nearly impossible for all players to be hot at the same time offensively, and players will always go through slumps. But if the Senators want to turn things around, they desperately need more help in the bottom-half of the lineup, particularly on the third line.