Trade Deadline Preview: Will the Senators Make any Moves?

The NHL Trade Deadline is just two days away, and for the first time since 2017, the Ottawa Senators might actually be buyers. We (probably) know that they won't be selling current roster players for picks or prospects, and there's a chance (we hope) that they bolster their roster as they head into the final month and a half of the season. They sit just one point out of a playoff spot with a game in hand, and it could come down to the wire to see if they finally make it in after eight years of misery.

Considering that the Sens have the fourth easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way and finish with eight of their final nine games at home, there should be no excuse for not making the playoffs. However, it won't be easy, and it'd be incredibly helpful if there were some reinforcements on the way. Unfortunately for Ottawa, there aren't many sellers out there and the prices are going to be high. In the East, the only team that is truly out is Buffalo, while Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New York (I) might sell as well but don't appear to have totally packed it in.

In the West, San Jose, Chicago, Nashville, and Seattle are too far out of it, while Anaheim, Utah, and St. Louis might sell but they're still alive so it's tough to know if they want to move anyone. That's five teams that are actively looking to move players, and six others that might move a player or two or might not. 5-11 teams, with only a few good options per team with the rest of the league looking to upgrade; that seems like a big imbalance to me.

Beyond the issues posed by the structure of the market, another hurdle to overcome for Ottawa is the salary cap. As it stands, the Sens have $850k in cap space with 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Nick Cousins is on LTIR and should be healthy before the end of the regular season as well. If he comes back, they'd swap Matthew Highmore for Cousins, which is a drop of $25k in cap space. With $825k available, they can either add a player for cheap, have a team or two retain salary, or they have to move a contract in any deal. Sending down Jacob Bernard-Docker or Nikolas Matinpalo would save $805k and $775k, but they both require waivers, and that would hurt their depth if one or both got claimed. This is where Travis Hamonic's no-move clause (instead of no-trade) severely hampers what Ottawa can do, as his $1.1M salary is notable when every dollar matters.

It's possible to make the money work, but it would require some creative thinking and I don't envy Steve Staios' position. The only salaries I could see being moved out in a trade are Travis Hamonic ($1.1M) and Anton Forsberg ($2.75M), while Matinpalo and Bernard-Docker could be waived (though in the case of Matinpalo in particular that doesn't seem overly likely). Josh Norris and David Perron could be moved in the summer but that's difficult to imagine during the season. Regardless, the point is that money is tight so I wouldn't expect much in terms of an addition or two.

When we look at what the Senators have for assets, it's also easy to see why they won't be big game hunting. Here are their draft picks for the next three seasons, although they'll have to lose a first round pick as well due to the Evgenii Dadonov/Pierre Dorion fiasco:

It'd be a fine amount of picks if their farm system was in a good place, but it's not right now, as the only prospects who seem like potential impact players are Carter Yakemchuk, Leevi Meriläinen, Blake Montgomery, and maybe Stephen Halliday. Beyond that, there are some interesting names but not ones that will carry much value in trade talks. I would be fine moving some mid-round picks for depth players, but top picks and or prospects for a rental is not something the Senators should be entertaining.

Realistically, we know this isn't the year the Senators are going to be competing for a Stanley Cup. However, it's vitally important for this core to experience success and compete in the playoffs so that they know what to expect moving forward. Besides, if this group isn't good enough to even qualify for the postseason in their primes, there are some hard questions that need to be answered in the off-season.

To get to the promised land, they could desperately use another scoring winger, as they rank 21st in the league in goals per game. Drake Batherson has been in a long slump, Claude Giroux has (unfortunately) visibly lost a step this season, David Perron is not what he used to be, and Adam Gaudette has fallen back down to earth. Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk can usually be counted on, but Ottawa becomes too predictable with a lack of offensive weapons. I'd love to see a bigger name added in the off-season, but for now, with limited options, I'm fine with a third-line addition.

Who is that, you may ask? Well, there aren't many names out there. They've been linked to Ryan Donato (22 goals, pending UFA), although I'm worried his price will end up being too high. Other names on the trade bait list (that I like or dislike to varying degrees) include Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, Scott Laughton, Reilly Smith, Nick Bjugstad, and Kyle Palmieri, but beyond that, it's more of a guessing game as to who is actually available. Brock Nelson and Rickard Rakell could be available but will almost certainly be too expensive, Brock Boeser might be moved as a pending UFA but would require money out (Josh Norris?), and other names are probably summer trades.

I don't see them adding a defenseman as they have done pretty well there, and there aren't many options that would actually be an upgrade on what they already have (assuming Hamonic is the one to sit). Ditto for goalies, as Forsberg has been a fine backup, and Meriläinen has been phenomenal.

Would it shock me if Staios did nothing by 3:00 eastern on Friday? Not at all. Would it still be very disappointing? Yes, you want to see your team reward its players and go for a playoff spot, even if you know the chances of them winning it all are so slim. While it is challenging to make moves right now, that doesn't preclude any action, and I hope Staios can make the team better for the final 22 games of the season so that we can see the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs for the first time since 2017. If you want to be the GM of an NHL team, you need to succeed in tough spots. This trade deadline would definitely qualify.