What If: The Sens hadn't traded Tugnutt for Barasso?

What If? is an occasional summer feature here at Silver Seven, where we examine a decision made by the team in the past and wonder would have happened if the Sens had made the other choice.

Today's edition of What If? has one target audience member: myself, age 8. Ron Tugnutt was my favourite Sens player. (He's still my display picture on this site.) Trading him felt like a gut punch, and it still seems like a strange choice. Here's an attempt to look at at what might have happened had I got to call the shots way back when.

For the uninitiated, on March 14, 2000, the Senators traded goalie Ron Tugnutt and defenceman Janne Laukkanen to the Penguins for veteran goalie Tom Barasso. Tugnutt had been part of Ottawa's Damian Rhodes/Ron Tugnutt goaltending duo for a couple years, but after Rhodes was traded to the Thrashers in 1999, Tugnutt became the undisputed starter. His backup was a certain Patrick Lalime. In 99-00, Tugnutt didn't have a great season, posting an .899 in 44 games, while Lalime's .905 in 38 games was better but still obviously not amazing. The team was also on pace to be worse than the previous year. GM Marshall Johnston decided the Sens needed a shakeup, and possibly some veteran presence. Barasso provided Cup rings and veteran experience at age 35, though it was risky bringing in a goalie who'd been limited to 12 games all season and hadn't played in the past month. He also, interestingly, had been backed up by Lalime earlier in Pittsburgh. Barasso was fine down the stretch, but wasn't enough for the Sens to beat a stronger Maple Leafs team, who beat Ottawa in 6 games in Round 1. Tugnutt was actually stellar for the Penguins, posting a .945 and 1.76 in 11 playoff games, with the 7th-seed Pens knocking off the Capitals in 5 games in Round 1, before losing to the eventual Cup-winning Devils in Round 2. Both goalies would move on from their new teams in the offseason; Barasso sat out the whole 2000-01 season to be with his daughter after her cancer diagnosis, and Tugnutt signed with the Blue Jackets.

But what would've happened if the Sens had decided to stay course and stick with Tugnutt? For starters, we would've missed out on one of the all-time great Sens quotes: "You want me to stop the ones going wide, too?" We also would've missed out on him telling reporters he didn't "give a shit" what they said on live TV. But more than that, how would it have affected franchise trajectories? Let's imagine numbers stay the same. If Tugnutt puts up a .945, the Sens dispatch the Leafs in Round 1, and we don't have all the hand-wringing as a fanbase about the Leafs curse in the playoffs. The Sens then probably lose to the wagon that was the Brodeur/Stevens Devils in Round 2. Winning an extra round doesn't affect their draft position, so the Sens still get Anton Volchenkov in the first round. Up until this point, the victory is moral.

With the success of Tugnutt in the 2000 playoffs, the Sens don't promote Patrick Lalime to full-time duty the following season, instead opting to extend Tugger. This means that Lalime is expendable, and he gets traded to a team looking for a young goalie — either the Wild, who acquired Manny Fernandez for those purposes, or the Ducks, who acquire J.S. Giguère. The repercussions for the Ducks in particular of running Lalime instead of Giguère could be huge, but I'm going to focus on the Sens here. Let's say the Sens trade Lalime for a second-round pick, deciding to run with Ron Tugnutt and Jani Hurme as their duo. The problem is, Tugnutt was already 31 at this point, and his numbers tailed off to end his career. Lalime's legacy was tainted by a certain Game 7 against the Leafs, but his playoff numbers overall are ridiculous: .926 and 1.77 in 41 games. Without Lalime, the Sens likely don't run to the Conference Finals in 2003. We lose the heartbreak over the name Jeff Friesen, but we also feel like there were more years of mediocrity with a strong core based around Daniel Alfredsson in the early 2000s that was mired by unreliable goaltending.

I imagine that in 2003, the Sens feel they need that veteran goalie push. They make the trade the Blues did for Chris Osgood, trading a 3rd-round pick and a B-level prospect like Chris Kelly. Osgood isn't as good as Lalime in those years, and the Sens fall in the second round in 2003 and still lose in the first round in 2004. In 04-05, the full-season lockout happens. Osgood returns to the Red Wings, as actually happened, and the Sens likely still get the opportunity to sign Dominik Hasek. So, overall, not doing the Barasso/Tugnutt swap makes the Sens a little worse in the 2000–04 window, but doesn't have much effect on the20 years since. But, crucially, an 8-year-old Ross doesn't cry about his favourite team losing his favourite player.

What do you think? Do you think the trajectory would've been different? What other What If"?s would you like to see? Let us know in the comments!