What's Changed for the Ottawa Senators?

After 43 games, the Ottawa Senators are 22-18-3, and are very much alive in the play-off race. Though they currently sit on the outside looking in, the Sens are actually 7th in the Eastern Conference by PTS% and just two points back of the Tampa Bay Lightning for third in the Atlantic (though Tampa does have a game in hand). While it's hardly time for the organization to declare "Mission Accomplished", the team is in a much, much better spot than it was at this time last year.

So, where did all this improvement come from? Today, I dive into what's changed for the better between this year and last.

The Goaltending

Let's get the big, obvious one out of the way first. Last year, the Sens were done in by horrendous goaltending. Ottawa finished the campaign 31st out of 32 teams for all-situations save percentage at .884 and a stunning -29.6 xGSA per Hockeyviz. It is, frankly, very hard to win in the NHL when your goalies play that poorly.

So what's changed? Well, the personnel tending the crease, that's what! Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg played almost all of the games last year for Ottawa and were both quite poor. This year, Forsberg has once again struggled in his appearances, but Linus Ullmark has been excellent after a middling start:

Combined with the suddenly stellar play of Leevi Meriläinen and Ottawa is actually 13th by SV% across all-situations and, I expect, will finish comfortably in the top 10 if Ullmark is able to remain relatively healthy the rest of the way. The Sens lead the whole dang league in shutouts with seven. Seven!

There's a tendency in hockey analysis to overcomplicate things when it comes to goalies: sometimes whether a team is allowing a lot of goals or not is as simple as how well the goalies are playing. In this case, the contrast between this season and last could not be more illustrative of that point.

Thomas Chabot has Been Exceptional

As a long time Chabot defender, I was never quite as down on him as many analysts and the general fanbase over the last couple of years, but even I will admit that the rearguard has taken his play to another level this season. There are a litany of reasons why: a seemingly clean bill of health for the first time in years, a competent partner, and a more manageable workload are all likely contributing factors. Regardless of the why, the what is possibly the best season by a Sens defenseman since Karlsson's prime. Ottawa is getting 55.79 CF%, 56.86 xGF% and, most importantly, 54.32 GF% with Chabot on the ice at 5v5. You will win a lot of games getting those kinds of margins.

Some may find his 19 points in 43 games to be a disappointing total but context is important here: it's very difficult to rack up the points as a defenseman when you don't play on PP1. Chabot's actually 34th among all defenders in 5v5 PTS/60. And just look at what the Sens are generating on offense with him on the ice this year:

The stats are impressive enough in their own right, but the ol' eye test confirms all of the above: Chabot looks like he's crushing the competition. Going from last year's version of Chabot to this year's version has been a massive upgrade.

They've Been Able to Hold Onto Leads

During last night's broadcast of the Sens' 2-0 win over the New York Islanders, you probably heard the stat that Ottawa is now 17-1-1 in games in which they lead going into the third period. To be clear, NHL teams win a strong majority of games when they are leading at the start of the third, but 17-1-1 is still strong evidence that the team has become much more effective at protecting leads in key situations. If there is one area for which I think Travis Green deserves the most credit this is it. For many years before his arrival, the Sens struggled badly while leading and, as a result, rarely led at all since they coughed up any lead they did get with alarming alacrity.

Compare last year's shot chart when leading by 1:

To this year's:

It's difficult to over-state how big of a swing that is. On the whole, the Sens' defense hasn't been hugely better than last year in terms of the chances they've allowed, but, while leading, and thus by definition in high leverage situations, the team has been absolutely nails.

The Special Teams Have Been Passable:

Lastly, while it's true that the Power Play has tailed off a bit after a hot start, the Sens still rank 9th by PP% for the season at 23.9%. The Penalty Kill is not what I would call a shining work of art, still ranks 17th at 78.6%. These are not ranks to write home about, but they are a sizable improvement on the 23rd ranked power play and 29th ranked penalty kill of 2023-24. With the aforementioned stout goaltending and defending at 5v5, that's really all you need from your special teams to at least stay competitive.

The real challenge in this area is not the results to-date, but rather the not-so-encouraging underlying numbers: Ottawa's PP hasn't generated the volume of chances you'd like to see and the PK has benefitted greatly from some stellar goaltending behind them. While I feel pretty confident the first three items I've identified will continue, the special teams gains do feel the most precarious. It will be something to watch for as the season progresses.