Who would we want the Sens to face in the playoffs?

Though it's not a done deal, the Sens are quite safely in a playoff position, being 7 points up on the Blue Jackets who are the best team on the outside looking in. Scanning the reputable analytics sites, the Sens are somewhere between 95% and 99% to make the playoffs. I also don't believe in jinxes – after all, no Sens player reads this site, so there's no way me writing this can affect them mentally. So let's move to a different topic today: the Sens have four potential first-round playoff opponents (technically they could still play nine other teams, but I'm ignoring scenarios that are less than 1-in-100,000 to happen). Which one of these is the best matchup for the Sens? As much as we say we're just happy to make the playoffs, we all know we won't be happy with a first-round sweep by the opponents. We want to see the Sens punch above their weight. So here are the four first-round opponents, in order of likelihood per HockeyViz.com.

Toronto Maple Leafs (38%)

Ottawa's record v. Toronto: 3-0-0

Ah, the Leafs. The Sens have won all three meetings this year, have won their past five in a row, and are 6-1 over the past two seasons. Also, most Leafs fans seem to be terrified about this matchup, about the potential to face Brady Tkachuk in the playoffs, and also the potential for Linus Ullmark to go beast mode and shut everything down. In terms of how Toronto's played this season, it's clear that they're a league-average team that feasts on the powerplay.

The Leafs have some game-breaking talent in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, as well as Mitch Marner and even an aging John Tavares, who is north of a point per game despite being 34. Trade deadline acquisition Brandon Carlo has been very good in a tiny sample (53.6 5v5 xGF%), while similarly acquired Scott Laughton has been atrocious (36.7%). The real place the Leafs have benefited this year is with the emergence of Anthony Stolarz, whose 16.22 5v5 goals saved above expected is sixth in the whole league — and the five guys ahead of him have played 14 to 18 more games. Stolarz has been hugely impactful despite not being the starter for most of the year. The question remains, can he keep it up? He's already at a career high in starts and games played, and, despite being in his ninth NHL season, nearly a quarter of his NHL minutes have come this season. Will the huge jump in workload wear him out? I'm glad I'm not a Leafs fan having to worry about this one!

The only other comment I'd make here is that I'm not sure I could handle the Sens losing a playoff series to the Leafs. Ottawa losing to one of the Florida teams would be annoying, but it wouldn't trigger trauma I've buried for 20 years. That's maybe the only concern I have here, because otherwise this is probably the best matchup for the Sens. A plucky but unproven goalie, Matthews having a down year, 33-year-old Oliver Ekman-Larsson and 35-year-old Chris Tanev getting big defensive minutes, the behind-the-scenes drama of Marner and Tavares as pending UFAs... plus we all know that if the Sens go up 1-0 or 2-1 in this series, the meltdowns will be huge. There's opportunity to pounce on this team's (and this fanbase's) mental fragility if you make them doubt.

Tampa Bay Lightning (35%)

Ottawa's record v. Tampa: 1-2-0 (One more game remaining on April 3)

Much like the Panthers, we all remember those two games against Tampa right before the Four Nations break, a 4-3 disappointing loss and then a 5-1 drubbing. It's easy to forget the Sens actually won the first meeting of the season, a 5-4 high-scoring affair way back in October. Tampa are a pretty good defensive team, whose offence is average 5v5 and then impressively lethal on the powerplay.

It's impressive to think that the Bolts' powerplay hasn't missed a beat after losing Steven Stamkos. The top players in Tampa have stayed good, paced by Nikita Kucherov's 111 points in 70 games, along with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel being point-per-game and top-six league-wide in goals. Equally huge as been the emergence of Brandon Hagel, already at 81 points with 8 more games to go. Hagel (58.9 5v5 xGF%) and Anthony Cirelli (61.3%) have been running over the opposition, while trade deadline acquisitions Oliver Bjorkstrand (64.0%) and Yanni Gourde (57.3%) have also been extremely good in a small sample. (Side note: it's been hysterical to me see TSN and Sportsnet trying to argue how the Leafs had as good of a trade deadline as Florida and Tampa. Laughton is not in the same category as Marchand, Bjorkstrand, or Gourde.) And if all of this wasn't enough, Andrei Vasilevskiy has shown he's still got it, his 25.3 GSAA being second in the league, behind only Connor Hellebuyck.

The Panthers are undoubtedly the scariest first-round opponent (more on that below), but this Tampa team isn't far behind, with a stronger potential for them to goalie an opponent. Really the only hope is that the drop-off through Tampa's lineup is notable. You'd have to try to contain the top guys, and then hope to take advantage of the weaker depth. The problem is that, with adding Bjorkstrand and Gourde, Tampa basically has three lines of guys who control play. Trying to take advantage of a team's fourth line isn't a great recipe for success.

Florida Panthers (16%)

Ottawa's record v. Florida: 1-1-0 (One game remaining on April 5)

Most of us remember the 5-1 embarrassing drubbing against the Panthers right before the Four Nations break. We might forget that way back on opening night, the Sens got a 3-1 win in which we first saw Linus Ullmark's brilliance for the Sens.

Among potential first-round matchups, this one is definitely the toughest. The Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions. They also are really, really good: they're third in the NHL in expected goals percentage (5v5, score and venue adjusted, per Natural Stat Trick) at 54.93%. As the HockeyViz charts below show us, they are great at generating chances, excellent at suppressing shots (both 5v5 and PK), and destructive on the powerplay.

Maybe even more scarily, this team has added Brad Marchand at the trade deadline, and will get back two dominant players in Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad, well-rested in the playoffs. (It may end up being a blessing for Florida that Ekblad got suspended, to repair any nagging injuries.) Florida also got Seth Jones, who is admittedly not a great player, but he's seen his 5v5 expected goals rise to 48.8% in Florida from 40.9% in Chicago; also, that number for Jones is the third-worst among all Panthers this season (no minimum games played). For comparison, the Sens have 14 players worse than Jones' number in Florida this year. Finally, the Cats are also getting great goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky this year. His 5v5 goals saved above average (via NST) is 9.73, good for 9th in the NHL.

In summary, Florida has skill and depth at every position. They are good in all situations. They are getting back two very good players near the start of the playoffs, so you can't even hope that much for fatigue after two deep playoff runs to affect them. I'd say this is the worst first-round matchup for Sens fans.

Washington Capitals (7%)

Ottawa's record v. Washington: 1-0-2

This has by far been Ottawa's most exciting potential opponent this season, with all three games going to extra time. The first meeting was a 1-0 OT win for Washington that was far from boring in a defensive and goaltending duel. The second saw Ottawa race out to a lead on consecutive shorthanded goals in the second period, only to have Washington claw it back and force OT, where Thomas Chabot got the game-winner on a breakaway on his birthday. Then Washington won the third in a game that they went up 3-0, only for Ottawa to force their way back, then rally again after falling behind late in the third. Even coming back from a big deficit and then a late deficit felt like this was a more resilient Sens team than so many previous years. This third game went to the shootout, and, well, mercifully for 2024-25 Sens fans, there are no shootouts in the playoffs. I went into this exercise thinking that Washington was outperforming their metrics, but the charts below show Washington as kind of a reverse-Leafs: league-average in most places, a little better at generating net-front offence 5v5, and then great at suppressing things on the PK.

It's fair to say the Capitals have slightly overperformed this season, getting 58.3% of the 5v5 goals on 51.2% of the expected 5v5 goals. Still, Alex Ovechkin broke his leg and is still top-six in league goals, so you'd expect his shooting talent to boost any team's actual scoring vs. expected. You also may notice a pattern in this article about goaltending, in that the best teams tend to have good goalies: Logan Thompson's 9.63 GSAA is 10th in the league, just behind Bobrovsky. In terms of skaters, Pierre-Luc Dubois has had a bit of a renaissance, pacing the team's forwards at 54.8% of the 5v5 expected goals, with John Carlson not far behind at 54.1%. Notably, Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, and newly extended Jakob Chychrun are all sub-50%, so there is a sign that this team is ripe for some regression at the most important time of the year. And when Anthony Beauvillier is your biggest trade deadline acquisition, I don't expect the numbers to shift significantly.

These Capitals are good, and they have the potential to goalie an opponent, but if you were projecting a first-round upset, this might just be the team. If the regular season has given us any sign, a Sens–Capitals first-round series would be exciting. I'm not sure our blood pressures could handle it, but it would likely be fun and memorable. Too bad the likelihood is by far the lowest (and would require the Sens to do a lot of losing to drop to Wild Card 2, which would stress us out even more).

Final Thoughts

It's interesting that, at this point, the Sens basically only have four teams they can meet. Even if Ottawa went on a tear and won the division because everyone else floundered, that would push one of Toronto, Florida, or Tampa Bay to the Wild Card spot, so they'd still face them. If we want to see the Sens win, we should want them to face Toronto or Washington first round. So I guess I'm cheering for the Leafs to win the division? You never know what weird things hockey's gonna make you do.